EXEL Stock Soars 26.8% in Three Months: Is There More Room for Growth?

Exelixis shares (EXEL) are up 26.8% over three months, helped by investor optimism for pipeline momentum despite a recent STELLAR-303 setback. The FDA decision on zanzalintinib’s NLM metastatic colorectal cancer (with Roche’s Tecentriq) application is targeted for Dec. 3, 2026; in the NLM subset, median OS was 15.9 months vs 12.7 months with regorafenib, but the result was not statistically significant. Offsetting this, Exelixis is expanding zanzalintinib development via late-stage partnerships with Merck and Natera, which supports the longer-term revenue diversification case beyond Cabometyx.

Analysis

EXEL’s rerating is being driven more by optionality than by any near-term earnings inflection, which makes the setup fragile. The market is implicitly capitalizing zanzalintinib as if approval and launch were high-probability, but until the FDA path and first uptake are visible, the stock still trades like a single-asset story with downside if the label is narrower than expected or if combination data fail to justify premium pricing.

Second-order, MRK is the cleaner beneficiary because it gets incremental lifecycle extension on Keytruda with limited incremental capital at risk; that optionality is cheap relative to a diversified $400B+ franchise. NTRA is a quieter winner if MRD-guided enrollment becomes standard in CRC trials, but that revenue is delayed and dependent on sponsor adoption rather than the press release itself. The more relevant competitive effect is that a successful zanzalintinib can pressure late-line GI/RCC incumbents by shifting treatment share rather than expanding the market.

The contrarian miss is that investors are focusing on the breadth of the pipeline while underestimating cannibalization and binary regulatory timing. If zanzalintinib works, some of the upside may simply migrate value from Cabometyx to the new asset rather than materially expanding group economics. If it fails or is delayed, the multiple can compress quickly because the current valuation already discounts a meaningful probability of success months ahead of the December decision.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Avoid chasing EXEL after the 3-month run; if long, reduce into strength or hedge with a 3-6 month put spread while the stock is still pricing approval optionality ahead of the Dec. 2026 FDA date.
• Pair trade: long MRK / short EXEL over the next 6-9 months to express 'diversified lifecycle extension' versus 'binary pipeline rerating'; cover the short if EXEL gets a clean regulatory signal or materially expands later-stage CRC/RCC efficacy.
• Wait on NTRA: only add on confirmation that STELLAR-316 uses Signatera at scale and drives paid MRD screening volume; otherwise the partnership is more validation than immediate revenue.
• If seeking upside exposure, use an EXEL Jan-2027 call spread on a pullback rather than buying outright after the rally; risk/reward is better when entry is below the recent high and implied optimism has cooled.