Tanzania: Authorities instil climate of fear and step up repression ahead of general elections

Amnesty International reports that Tanzania's government, under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, has intensified repression against opposition, journalists, and civil society ahead of the October 29 general elections, undermining earlier hopes for reform. This includes politically motivated arrests, extrajudicial killings, enforced disappearances, and the disqualification of key opposition candidates, raising significant concerns about the legitimacy of the upcoming vote. The report highlights the weaponization of the justice system and the passage of restrictive laws, signaling increased political risk and governance concerns that could impact investor confidence and potential international scrutiny.

Analysis

Amnesty International's recent briefing reveals a significant intensification of political repression in Tanzania under President Samia Suluhu Hassan, ahead of the October 29 general elections. This contradicts earlier hopes for reform, with authorities actively suppressing dissent among opposition, journalists, and civil society through a deliberate strategy to entrench power. The report details politically motivated arrests, extrajudicial killings, and enforced disappearances, alongside the disqualification of key opposition figures like Tundu Lissu.

The government has weaponized the criminal justice system and enacted restrictive legislation, including amendments to the Political Parties Affairs Laws Act 2024 and the Independent National Electoral Commission Act 2024. These measures systematically curb civic space and undermine democratic processes, as evidenced by the arrest of a Chadema official for alleged communication with the European Parliament. Such actions elevate the country's political risk profile.

The "extremely negative" sentiment (-0.9) and "pessimistic" tone surrounding these developments suggest a deteriorating investment climate, despite a low immediate market impact score (0.1). Heightened political instability and potential international scrutiny or sanctions could deter foreign direct investment and negatively affect long-term economic growth prospects for Tanzania. Investors should recognize the increased governance risk associated with this environment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor the political landscape in Tanzania closely, particularly the outcome and international reaction to the October 29 elections, for signs of escalating instability or international sanctions.
• Assess existing or potential investments in Tanzania for increased political and governance risk, considering the implications of a weakened rule of law and potential for policy unpredictability.
• Evaluate exposure to sectors heavily reliant on government stability or foreign direct investment, as these may face headwinds from deteriorating investor confidence and potential capital flight.