Ships still aren’t going through the Strait of Hormuz. Here’s what it will take to get things going again

About 20% of global oil transits the Strait of Hormuz, but a fragile ceasefire has left shippers largely unwilling to transit: only two oil/gas tankers have passed since the ceasefire and over 400 tankers remain in the region, with companies like Hapag-Lloyd keeping vessels idle. Oil is trading near $100/bbl and U.S. pump prices are up ~40% (~$1.18/gal) since the war began; Iran’s IRGC is reportedly charging up to $2M per tanker (payments in yuan/crypto), deterring resumption of flows. Expect sustained upward pressure on energy prices and material supply-chain disruption until Tehran provides explicit safe-passage assurances and empty tankers are willing to return, keeping market risk elevated.

Analysis

The market is pricing a sizable behavioral premium into both energy and shipping — not just a short-term supply gap. When seaborne flows are ambiguous, capital shifts to assets that monetize duration (tanker time-charters, demurrage) and to insurance underwriters; that creates a sustained bifurcation between owners of mobile capacity and operators who rely on predictable lanes. Expect freight-rate volatility to persist longer than headline geopolitical calm because commercial decisions (insurance buys, flag routing, crew rotations) lag diplomatic signals by weeks-to-months.

Second-order supply-chain effects will amplify inflation transmission even if physical exports resume: longer voyage cycles raise bunker demand and compress available ton-miles for exports elsewhere, tightening product markets regionally. Corporates with localized feedstock (domestic crude supply, pipeline access) will see improved margins versus those dependent on seaborne crude and just-in-time inventories; this favors refiners with inland crude access and penalizes integrated logistics-heavy manufacturers. Also watch financial plumbing — acceptance of non-dollar tolls and crypto payments for passage could reconfigure sanction enforcement and create new settlement risks for western banks and insurers.

Key catalysts and horizons: operational approvals, standardized safe-passage protocols and insurance underwriter guidance are the primary near-term switches (days–weeks) that will re-liquefy shipping flows; fleet redeployment and contract renegotiations are medium-term (weeks–months) drivers that set a new baseline for freight and oil-term structure. Tail risks include episodic attacks or unilateral tolling regimes that would force permanent rerouting, sharply increasing break-even freight rates. Leading indicators to monitor: AIS vessel density on alternate routes, VLCC/clean tanker TC indices, P&I/war-risk premium filings, and bunker crude spreads.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long tanker owners via Euronav (EURN) 3–6 month call spread (buy 3-month $10 call / sell $16 call) — directional on higher TC rates and floating storage premium; target 30–50% upside if charter indices re-rate, max loss = premium paid (~100% of premium).
• Pair: Long inland-access refiners (PBF Energy PBF) / Short global container lines (Hapag‑Lloyd HLAG or ZIM Integrated ZIM) for 3–6 months — capture margin tailwind from differential crude access vs transpacific/congestion pressure on container networks; size 1:1, stop-loss at 8% adverse move.
• Buy Brent 3‑month call spread (e.g., long $90 / short $110) to capture continued risk premium without unlimited theta bleed — asymmetry if incidents re-escalate; cap cost to preserve capital with ~2:1 upside vs premium paid under moderate vols.
• Event hedge: Buy 1–2% notional of portfolio value in shipping/war-risk insurance ETF exposure via specialty reinsurer equity (e.g., Allianz proxy via XETRA ALV or small-cap Lloyd’s insurer) to benefit from cyclical premium normalization — hold 6–12 months, expect visible P&L within first re-underwriting season.