SpaceX Could IPO in June at a $1.75 Trillion Valuation. Here Is 1 Stock to Buy Before It Does.

SpaceX is reportedly eyeing a 2026 IPO that could raise about $50 billion and target valuations as high as $1.75 trillion; the company posted roughly $8 billion in profit on $15–16 billion of revenue last year. Morningstar highlights two aspirational deployment targets for IPO proceeds — orbital data centers (up to 1 million satellites, requiring ~6,667 Starship flights annually) and a Moonbase — but calls large-scale orbital compute unrealistic in the near term. Regardless of feasibility, the article argues Nvidia (≈85% AI GPU market share) stands to benefit materially as SpaceX/xAI and other big tech players chase more GPUs, implying sector-level upside for AI chip suppliers.

Analysis

Primary market implication: an infusion of growth capital into a vertically integrated launch + comms company will act as a demand shock for high-end accelerators and systems integration services irrespective of whether orbital compute becomes practical. That shock compresses lead times, elevates spot pricing, and hands outsized order flow to the incumbent GPU vendor, reinforcing its ecosystem advantage and increasing switching costs for hyperscalers.

Second-order winners are not the rocketyards but the supply chain nodes that can scale volume quickly: advanced packaging/fab partners, GPU system integrators, optics/RF suppliers, and logistics firms that solve high-frequency manifesting. Conversely, CPU-centric vendors and legacy datacenter services risking displacement in AI-heavy workloads (notably firms without a GPU roadmap) face revenue mix pressure and margin compression as buyers prioritize accelerators over central processors.

Key risks and timing: technical feasibility, regulatory cross-border data rules, and realistic launch cadence make material procurement cycles multi-year (6–36 months) rather than immediate. A near-term catalyst would be a formal filing or procurement commitment from an anchor tenant; a reversing catalyst is a rapid increase in alternative accelerators (AMD, bespoke ASICs) or meaningful wafer capacity coming online that relieves acute GPU scarcity within 6–12 months.

Contrarian view: the market underestimates how quickly capital commitments translate into inventory hoarding by large AI players; that behavior can create a transient overshoot where prices spike and then snap back once fabs ramp. Positioning should therefore seek asymmetric upside to capture order-flow benefits while explicitly protecting against a supply-driven mean reversion.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long NVDA via a 9–12 month call spread (buy deep ITM call, sell higher strike) sized 2–3% NAV: targets 20–40% upside if incremental OEM orders accelerate GPU revenue; capped downside equals premium paid (protects vs sudden derating).
• Pair trade — Long NVDA / Short INTC equal-notional for 12–18 months, 3% NAV each side: captures structural shift to accelerators; set a stop-loss if INTC reports >5% sequential share gain in AI datacenter CPU/accelerator bookings.
• Protective hedge: purchase 6-month 10–15% OTM NVDA puts sized 0.5–1% NAV to guard against a sharp derating if GPU scarcity eases or IPO narrative stalls.
• Event-contingent allocation: if a filing/anchor procurement is announced within 3 months, add incremental 1% NAV to NVDA call spreads and sell short a small INTC position; if no material disclosure in 6 months, trim NVDA exposure by 25% to lock gains.