Goldman Sachs Names Top 3 US Lodging Stocks Ahead of Earnings

Goldman Sachs reiterated Buy ratings on Hilton (HLT), Marriott (MAR), and Hyatt (H) ahead of Q2 earnings, citing US RevPAR momentum offsetting China/international weakness. It raised Q2’26 systemwide RevPAR growth outlooks to 3.3% for both Hilton and Marriott (and increased North America RevPAR to 5.0% for Hilton and 5.6% for Marriott) and expects Hyatt to deliver 3.9% systemwide RevPAR growth. Estimated Q2’26 adjusted EBITDA is $1,036M (Hilton), $1,555M (Marriott), and $289M (Hyatt), while each tracks at/near the high end of 2026 RevPAR guidance ranges.

Analysis

This reads more like a relative-value setup than a clean sector long. The incremental edge is in mix: US-heavy fee platforms with limited international leakage should convert modest RevPAR upside into cleaner EBITDA leverage, while chains with more overseas exposure will look fine on the top line but face slower estimate revisions. The important second-order effect is that direct-booking and loyalty investments become more valuable when domestic demand is strong, because every basis point of channel shift drops through faster than room growth.

The market is likely underestimating dispersion within lodging. HLT is the clearest domestic beneficiary, but that also makes it the most crowded and the least forgiving if forward guidance merely meets instead of beats; MAR has more room for an operating narrative reset if owner-friction eases, yet it also carries the highest risk of multiple compression if Bonvoy complaints translate into softer conversion. H should keep getting credit for mix and execution, but after its recent outperformance, the risk/reward is more about maintaining premium than re-rating higher.

Catalyst timing is short: the next 2-6 weeks are about earnings prints and management commentary on summer booking velocity, not a multi-quarter secular shift. The thesis breaks if consumer spend cools or if international weakness spreads back into North American pricing. Conversely, if domestic RevPAR stays firm into late summer, the beneficiaries are the asset-light chains, while OTAs and weaker owners may see some share loss from direct-booking initiatives and loyalty capture.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Prefer long HLT / short MAR for 1-3 months to express domestic mix and cleaner fee leverage; target a modest 5-8% relative move, with a stop if MAR shows sustained North America reacceleration or if HLT valuation re-rates another turn higher.
• On any post-earnings strength, look to fade HLT outright via call spreads rather than a naked short; the stock quality is good, but near-record positioning makes upside asymmetric only if guidance meaningfully raises.
• Initiate a tactical long H as a quality/upper-upscale exposure play, but size below HLT because the recent outperformance likely already discounted much of the good news; use a 1-2 month horizon into earnings and trim if RevPAR merely matches the high end of guidance.
• Watch NAVN as a potential beneficiary of direct-booking integrations, but do not chase without evidence of booking-conversion or commission savings; treat it as an alert, not a trade, until management quantifies take-rate and usage.
• If hotel stocks rally into earnings on analyst upgrades alone, consider shorting the most crowded names against broader consumer or travel exposure, because the next leg requires proof of booking/margin upside, not just estimate revisions.