What to Expect in Markets This Week: Shutdown-Related Data Delays, Fed Speakers, Amazon Prime Days

The ongoing federal government shutdown will delay the release of several key economic indicators, including the U.S. trade deficit and weekly jobless claims, reducing market visibility. However, critical Federal Reserve communications, such as FOMC minutes (expected to reflect new dovish member Stephen Miran's influence) and speeches from Chair Powell and Treasury Secretary Bessent, will proceed as scheduled, alongside consumer sentiment data. Investors will also monitor a busy slate of corporate earnings from major consumer companies like PepsiCo and Delta Air Lines, and OpenAI's DevDay, against a backdrop of the S&P 500's recent third consecutive record close.

Analysis

Investors may not have as much to watch for this week as they expected if the federal government remains shut down. The shutdown is likely to delay the release of several economic indicators, including data on the U.S. trade deficit, weekly initial jobless claims and wholesale inventories. But investors are still expected to hear from Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and top Fed officials. Consumer sentiment data and Fed meeting minutes are also expected to come out as planned. Key corporate earnings are still expected, including numbers from PepsiCo, Delta Air Lines, Levi Strauss, and Applied Digital. Last week ended with the major U.S. indexes booking weekly gains; the S&P on Friday logged a third straight record close. Read to the bottom for our calendar of key events—and one more thing. Shutdown Leaves Government Economic Reports in Limbo The shutdown means investors aren’t likely to see economic reports from agencies like the Labor Department and the Census Bureau. But some noteworthy economic releases are still expected. Since the Federal Reserve isn’t funded by the congressional appropriation process—it mainly gets its money through interest charges on securities it holds—the central bank is expected to continue its schedule as planned.1 That includes a pre-recorded introduction from Chair Jerome Powell at Thursday’s Fed conference on community banks. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman are set to participate in a “fireside chat” at the event, while several other Fed speakers are scheduled. The Fed is also scheduled to release the minutes of its most recent meeting, where it cut interest rates for the first time in 2025. Investors will be looking for signs of influence from the board’s newest member, Stephen Miran, who has pressed for steeper interest rate cuts. Miran is also scheduled to speak on Tuesday. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment report and the Fed's consumer credit report are also expected. Earnings at Big Consumer Names Headline Corporate Events This Week A busy slate of reports from beverage and airline giants, along with an online sales event by the world's biggest e-commerce retailer, could offer some insights into the state of the American consumer. Constellation Brands is set to kick off the week with its results Monday. The Corona and Modelo parent is expected to report sliding sales after cutting its outlook last month on worries about tariffs and weak demand with fewer Americans drinking alcohol. Soda and snack maker PepsiCo, scheduled to follow Thursday, could also face challenges from its Frito-Lay division and weakness in its North American sales, some Wall Street analysts have warned.. Delta Air Lines reports on Thursday, after the carrier reinstated its outlook and reported better-than-expected results. Levi’s reports Thursday after the jeans maker grew revenue in the prior quarter despite pressure from tariffs. Online retail giant Amazon (AMZN) holds its Prime Big Deal Days sales event on Oct. 7-8; Walmart (WMT) has its own event on top. On the tech side, ChatGPT maker OpenAI is set to host a DevDay developer conference on Monday, which Wall Street analysts said could bring new features and announcements from the world's most valuable startup. Quick Links: Recap Last Week’s Trading | Read Investopedia’s Latest News This Week’s Calendar Monday, Oct. 6 - Key Earnings: Constellation Brands (STZ)2 - Other Corporate Events: OpenAI's DevDay developer conference Tuesday, Oct. 7 - Consumer credit (August)3 - Federal Reserve Officials Speaking: Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic, Fed Vice Chair Michelle Bowman, Fed Governor Stephen Miran, Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari4567 - Amazon Prime Big Deal Days Begin8 - Data Delayed by the Shutdown: U.S. trade deficit (August)9 - Key Earnings: McCormick (MKC)10 Wednesday, Oct. 8 - Minutes of Federal Open Market Committee's September meeting3 - Fed Officials Speaking: Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, Fed Governor Michael Barr, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem51112 - Key Earnings: AZZ (AZZ), Bassett Furniture (BSET)1314 Thursday, Oct. 9 - Fed Officials Speaking: Chair Jerome Powell, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, and Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman expected to speak at Fed’s Community Bank Conference, Fed Governor Michael Barr515 - Data Delayed by the Shutdown: Initial jobless claims (Week ending Oct. 4), Wholesale inventories (August) 916 - Key Earnings: PepsiCo (PEP), Delta Air Lines (DAL), Levi Strauss (LEVI), Applied Digital (APLD), Tilray Brands (TLRY), Helen of Troy (HELE)171819202122 Friday, Oct. 10 - Consumer sentiment - preliminary (October)23 - Data Release in Question: Monthly U.S. federal budget (September)24 - Fed Officials Speaking: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee, St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem2526 One More Thing While more than half of investors say they are optimistic about the stock market, pessimism is creeping in amid worries about bubbles in AI and megacap tech stocks. Caleb Silver and Amanda Morelli have more on that and other topics in Investopedia’s annual readers’ survey. The impending week is characterized by a significant information gap for investors due to a federal government shutdown, which is expected to delay key economic reports including U.S. trade deficit data and weekly jobless claims. This absence of government-sourced data elevates the importance of Federal Reserve communications, as the central bank's operations remain unaffected. Market participants will closely analyze the minutes from the recent FOMC meeting, where the Fed initiated its first rate cut of 2025, for insights into the influence of new, more dovish members like Stephen Miran who advocate for steeper cuts. Speeches from Chair Jerome Powell and Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will also be critical focal points. On the corporate front, earnings season provides a direct lens into consumer health, with highly divergent outlooks. Delta Air Lines (DAL) signals strength by reinstating its guidance, while consumer staples giants like Constellation Brands (STZ) and PepsiCo (PEP) face headwinds, with STZ having already cut its outlook and PEP confronting potential weakness in key divisions. This comes as the S&P 500 closes at a third consecutive record, creating a potential disconnect with underlying investor pessimism noted in a recent survey regarding AI and megacap tech valuations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the suspension of key government economic reports, investors should place a heightened emphasis on Federal Reserve communications, particularly the FOMC minutes and officials' speeches, to gauge the trajectory of monetary policy.
• Scrutinize upcoming earnings from consumer-facing companies for signs of divergence, paying attention to the contrasting outlooks between travel (Delta) and consumer staples (PepsiCo, Constellation Brands) to refine a view on consumer resilience.
• Despite recent market highs, it is prudent to monitor for signs of increasing pessimism regarding valuations in AI and megacap tech sectors, and consider hedging strategies if the disconnect between market sentiment and price action widens.
• In the absence of official labor and trade data, utilize alternative indicators such as the University of Michigan's consumer sentiment report and commentary from Amazon's and Walmart's sales events as proxies for consumer spending health.