Halyk Bank reports 14.9% profit rise for 2025

Halyk Bank reported net income attributable to common shareholders of KZT 1,058.4bn for FY2025, up 14.9% YoY. Total assets rose 12.7% to KZT 20,908.5bn, gross loans grew 13.9% to KZT 13,714.7bn and customer deposits increased 10.4% to KZT 14,338.8bn, while NIM edged down to 7.1% from 7.2% as interest expense rose 32.4% to KZT 1,407.2bn. Capital adequacy (k2) remains strong at 18.9% (>12% regulatory minimum) but Stage 3 loans are 7.7% of total loans and cost of risk increased to 1.4%, with a moratorium on retail loan sales to collectors until May 2026.

Analysis

Nvidia benefit from ongoing, predictable buy-side demand out of vertically integrated customers (auto + aerospace) is a structural tailwind that lengthens lead times across the high-end GPU supply chain. That reduces the probability of channel-led hiccups in the near term but increases sensitivity to foundry and substrate capacity constraints — meaning NVDA upside is more constrained by supply friction than by end-market demand in the next 3–12 months.

A robust domestic banking franchise in an emerging market with strong deposit flows and a high proportion of local-currency balances materially shortens funding duration volatility for that bank versus regional peers; that creates an implicitly lower beta to adverse external funding shocks but raises idiosyncratic exposure to local regulatory shifts. The combination of steady loan growth and tighter regulatory buffers makes the stock (and local bank paper) attractive on pullbacks, yet it remains vulnerable to currency outsized moves or changes to the moratorium/regulatory treatment of problem assets.

Cross-asset second-order: sustained semiconductor ordering from high-volume system integrators shifts heating from inventory cycles to capital spending cycles at foundries and substrate suppliers, favoring equipment and specialty materials names in the 6–18 month window while compressing upside for incumbents who can't expand capacity quickly. Watch macro tightening and enterprise IT spend as the primary short-term catalyst that could flip both semis and EM financials within 60–180 days.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long NVDA 6–12 month call spread (buy ATM, sell ~75–80% OTM) — asymmetric risk: capped cost with leveraged exposure to continued AI/auto chip demand; target 2.5–4x return if NVDA trades up ~25–40% and max loss equal to premium paid.
• Pair trade: long NVDA / short AMD equal notional for 3–9 months — isolates AI-specific content capture vs broader client-side cyclical semiconductor risk; hedge ratio 1:1 notional, stop-loss 12% adverse move in pair basis.
• Long HSBK equity on a disciplined pullback (3–9 month horizon) sized as a tactical EM financials overweight — reward: capture local deposit re-pricing and loan growth premium; risks: local FX depreciation and regulatory reversals. Hedge with 1–2% notional EM bank regional put spread to limit tail loss.
• Tactical covered-call on TSLA (sell 3–6 month calls against modest long equity) to monetize elevated retail/strategy sentiment while retaining upside capture — ideal where you want to reduce theta drag; target net yield ~4–8% over term, cap upside at sold strike.