No full Hormuz flows until first half of 2027, UAE's oil giant says

ADNOC's chief said full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may not return until the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the Middle East conflict ended immediately. The statement underscores a prolonged supply-risk premium for global oil markets and highlights ongoing vulnerability in a critical energy transit chokepoint. This is materially negative for energy logistics and likely supportive of crude prices and volatility.

Analysis

ADNOC's chief said full oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz may not return until the first or second quarter of 2027, even if the Middle East conflict ended immediately. The statement underscores a prolonged supply-risk premium for global oil markets and highlights ongoing vulnerability in a critical energy transit chokepoint. This is materially negative for energy logistics and likely supportive of crude prices and volatility.