Tech mega-bull Dan Ives shares 10 top stock picks for weathering geopolitical turmoil

Dan Ives (Wedbush) published 10 defensive tech and defense-oriented stock picks to own amid Iran-related geopolitical risk and AI-driven market jitters. Notable YTD moves among his selections include Planet Labs +32%, Salesforce -28%, ServiceNow -24%, Microsoft -17% and Apple -5.5%; Ives highlights cybersecurity names CrowdStrike, Palo Alto Networks and Check Point as safe havens versus AI disruption. He frames the list as companies with robust business models and defense/AI tailwinds (e.g., Palantir’s US federal exposure, Voyager’s space/defense capabilities) intended to navigate near-term volatility.

Analysis

Geopolitical escalation is a near-term demand shock that reorders technology spend: rapid stop-gap increases to cyber and ISR budgets will favor vendors that can stitch telemetry across cloud, edge and government networks quickly. That structurally benefits cloud-native endpoint/XDR platforms and satellite analytics providers with low integration friction, while point-product vendors and new AI startups face elongated sales cycles as procurement shifts to proven vendors with Fed/DoD validation.

Second-order supply effects matter: defense and space customers prioritize domesticized, high-reliability supply chains which raises margins for firms with vetted Tier-1 suppliers and could pressure small suppliers dependent on global chip flows. Conversely, enterprise SaaS vendors that rely on discretionary IT spend (workflows, CRM upgrades) are exposed to slower deal velocity and elongated ARR recognition if CFOs reallocate capex toward security and resilience over productivity in the next 3–12 months.

Key risks and catalyst timelines: an overnight broadened conflict or major sanction episode (days–weeks) triggers classic risk-off and multiple compression on long-duration growth names; conversely, a visible tranche of government contracts or demonstrable AI-for-defense wins (3–9 months) is the fastest path to re-rating for suppliers. Regulatory/AI adversarial incidents remain a 6–18 month tail risk that could both accelerate cyber spend and simultaneously raise compliance costs that compress SaaS margins.

Consensus blind spot: the market treats cyber and AI as binary winners; the real alpha will be concentrated in integrated-platform vendors with defensible telemetry moats and Fed/DoD certifications. That means broad long-biased bets on “AI winners” are likely noisy — allocate to specific technology-procurement migration winners rather than index-level exposure.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long CRWD + PANW (equal weight, 6–12 month horizon): size 3–5% NAV each, tactical entry on any <10% pullback; target 30–40% upside if government/enterprise security budgets reaccelerate, hard stop at -15% to protect against broad risk-off.
• Pair trade: Long MSFT (core 6–18 month holding) / Short NOW (smaller sizing) to express defensive cloud+AI monetization vs SaaS workflow earnings risk — target asymmetry 2.5:1 (expect MSFT to outperform NOW by 20–30% if AI spend converts), rebalance on earnings or booked contract announcements.
• Options hedge for SaaS exposure: buy 3–6 month ATM puts on a SaaS basket (CRM, NOW) sized to cover 20–30% of position gamma — cheap insurance against a rapid risk-off that compresses multiples; consider selling OTM calls to finance premium if conviction is longer-term.
• Selective long PL (satellite analytics) for ISR/data-monetization optionality with small stake (1–2% NAV) and buy protective puts or use collars due to execution/contract volatility; add weight on confirmed government contract awards (catalyst 3–9 months).