US October employment report will not include jobless rate, Hassett says

White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett confirmed that the October employment report will be released without the jobless rate due to the recent 43-day federal government shutdown, which halted household survey data collection. This omission of a key labor market indicator introduces uncertainty, while Hassett also estimated the shutdown cost the economy $15 billion weekly, impacting Q4 annualized GDP growth by 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points.

Analysis

The White House confirmed the October employment report will be released without the crucial jobless rate, a direct consequence of the recent 43-day federal government shutdown. This unprecedented omission stems from the suspension of the household survey, which typically provides the unemployment rate, leaving a significant gap in key labor market data for the month. While the establishment survey's nonfarm payroll count will be available, the absence of the unemployment rate introduces considerable uncertainty regarding the true state of the labor market.

Beyond data integrity, the shutdown incurred substantial economic costs, estimated by White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett at approximately $15 billion per week. This weekly cost is projected to subtract 1.0 to 1.5 percentage points from annualized fourth-quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth, aligning with nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office projections. The Council of Economic Advisers also estimated 60,000 non-federal job losses due to the shutdown's ripple effects.

This situation, characterized by a "strongly negative" sentiment and "pessimistic" tone, highlights significant fiscal policy risks and their tangible impact on economic indicators. The lack of a complete employment picture, combined with direct GDP growth deceleration, suggests a period of heightened economic uncertainty. Investors should therefore anticipate potential volatility and a more challenging environment for economic forecasting.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should account for heightened economic data uncertainty, particularly concerning the labor market's true health due to the missing October unemployment rate.
• Closely monitor Q4 GDP forecasts and actual releases, as the estimated 1.0-1.5 percentage point drag from the shutdown signals a material deceleration in economic growth.
• Assess portfolio exposure to sectors sensitive to domestic policy risks and economic slowdowns, given the significant fiscal impact and job losses attributed to the shutdown.