Nearly 82 Million Americans Projected to Travel over Thanksgiving

AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence and INRIX released Thanksgiving 2025 travel forecasts for the Nov. 25–Dec. 1 holiday window showing Florida cities (Orlando, Fort Lauderdale, Miami) as the top domestic destinations and a mix of European, Caribbean and Australian spots internationally; INRIX warns Tuesday–Wednesday afternoons and Sunday returns will see the worst congestion while AAA/SPGMI quantify person-trips for domestic leisure. INRIX’s route-level projections identify extreme slowdowns on key corridors—Washington D.C. to Baltimore (+166% travel time), New York to the Hamptons (+163%), Los Angeles to Bakersfield (+147%), and San Francisco to Santa Rosa (+114%) among the largest increases—recommending morning departures to avoid peak periods. For investors, these forecasts signal robust short-term consumer leisure demand supporting airlines, hotels, car rental, fuel and local retail, while pronounced congestion raises operational risk for freight and last‑mile delivery in affected metros; AAA’s forecast is domestic-leisure focused and was finalized the week of Oct. 20, 2025.

Analysis

AAA, S&P Global Market Intelligence and INRIX published coordinated Thanksgiving 2025 travel forecasts covering the seven-day window from Nov. 25 to Dec. 1, 2025; AAA/SPGMI finalized the domestic-leisure person-trip forecast the week of Oct. 20, 2025 and identifies Orlando, Fort Lauderdale and Miami as the top domestic destinations while international bookings skew to Europe, the Caribbean and Australia. AAA’s forecast is explicitly domestic-leisure focused and should not be directly compared to TSA passenger counts because it reports round‑trip person‑trips rather than individual airport screeners.

INRIX’s route-level model projects peak congestion on Tuesday–Wednesday afternoons before Thanksgiving and heavy Sunday return traffic, recommending morning departures to avoid the worst delays; standout route estimates include Washington, D.C. to Baltimore (+166%, 1h50m), New York to the Hamptons (+163%, 4h08m), Los Angeles to Bakersfield (+147%, 4h10m) and San Francisco to Santa Rosa (+114%, 2h34m). The INRIX methodology combines connected-vehicle GPS, telematics and infrastructure sensors to produce time-specific delay forecasts cited in the release.

Market implications are twofold: the booking and destination mix signal robust near‑term consumer leisure demand supporting airlines, hotels, car rental, fuel and local retail, while the pronounced route-specific congestion elevates operational risk and potential cost pressure for freight and last‑mile delivery in affected metros. Investors should monitor AAA booking trends, INRIX real‑time delay metrics, gasoline demand and region-specific occupancy/load factors as near‑term indicators of revenue upside or logistic headwinds.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider a tactical overweight to travel & leisure exposure (airlines, hotels, car rental and Florida-focused hospitality) to capture near-term leisure demand, monitor AAA booking and hotel occupancy data for confirmation
• Reduce or hedge short-duration exposure to parcel and last-mile carriers operating in heavily congested metros (NY, DC, LA, SF) given projected travel-time increases of 114%–166% that may raise operating costs and delay performance
• Use INRIX route-specific delay metrics, TSA/airline load factors and gasoline demand as leading indicators to adjust positions and be ready to trim exposure if real-time congestion or fuel trends worsen
• Advise logistics and retail-oriented holdings to shift shipments and operations toward morning windows or off-peak periods around the Thanksgiving window to mitigate the predicted peak delays