Ukraine in maps: Tracking the war with Russia

After three years, the conflict in Ukraine remains active, with Russia making incremental gains in the east, particularly towards Pokrovsk, while facing significant troop losses, estimated at 45,000 in the past year. Despite a stalled US aid package earlier in the year, Ukrainian forces have held firm around Kharkiv after a Russian incursion in May 2024. Ceasefire talks remain tense, and the US and Ukraine have signed a deal to share profits from Ukraine's mineral and energy reserves, aiming to incentivize continued US investment in Ukraine's defense and reconstruction.

Analysis

The conflict in Ukraine, now extending beyond its third year, remains a protracted war of attrition. Russian forces have achieved slow, costly territorial expansion in eastern Ukraine, particularly advancing towards Pokrovsk in the Donetsk region, covering approximately 40km in the past year despite significant casualties, including an estimated 45,000 Russian troops killed in the last year alone, with around 620,000 reportedly operating in Ukraine and Kursk. Ukrainian military intelligence noted a 30% increase in assaults recently, perceived as a Russian spring offensive. Despite the fall of Avdiivka in February 2024, Ukrainian forces have utilized innovative tactics, combining drones and ground forces, to inflict substantial losses and slow the Russian advance. A new Russian incursion north of Kharkiv in May 2024 led to the seizure of several villages during a period of delayed US aid, which was subsequently resolved in April 2024; Ukrainian forces later stabilized this front, keeping Kharkiv city beyond Russian artillery range. Ceasefire negotiations remain strained, with reported tensions between US President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelensky. A notable development is the US-Ukraine agreement signed on April 30, establishing a profit-sharing mechanism for Ukraine's future mineral and energy reserves and an investment fund for economic recovery, aimed at incentivizing continued US investment in Ukraine's defense and reconstruction. US Vice-President JD Vance indicated the war is "not going to end any time soon," underscoring the long-term nature of the conflict and associated uncertainties.