Famitsu software sales (4/13/26 – 4/19/26) – Top 30

The big signal is not the one-off chart topper; it is the widening gap between first-party ecosystem pull and third-party monetization. Platform holders can now rely on a longer tail of legacy catalog demand, but the attach-rate economics are shifting toward upgrade paths and bundle-like reissues rather than true greenfield software demand. That tends to favor the incumbent with the deepest first-party IP library and hurts external publishers that need breakout launches to justify shelf space and marketing spend.

Switch 2 appears to be entering the phase where hardware momentum is less about launch-day novelty and more about content cadence and backward-compatible monetization. The early sales pattern suggests a healthy installed-base flywheel, but also a risk that many purchases are “system purchases” rather than sustained software spending, which compresses the multiple if software attach does not broaden over the next 2-3 quarters. The most important second-order effect is inventory planning: publishers will likely front-load more safe franchises into the ecosystem, crowding out mid-tier new IP and increasing competition for consumer mindshare.

The contrarian read is that strong chart performance on classic franchises may actually be a warning sign for innovation quality, not a confirmation of secular growth. If consumers are gravitating to familiar names and upgraded editions, the market may be overstating the earnings durability of publishers leaning on remasters and evergreen IP, while underestimating the upside for the few companies with genuinely new content that can reset engagement. The reverse risk is that if the pipeline disappoints for even one or two release windows, the category can quickly revert to a nostalgia-driven demand plateau rather than a durable upgrade cycle.