Russians can travel to 120 countries visa-free

Sangadzhi Tarbayev, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Tourism, said Russian passport holders currently have visa-free or simplified-entry access to 120 countries and territories. Recent and imminent changes include visa-free travel to China, Oman and Jordan introduced at the end of 2025, a soon-to-come regime with Saudi Arabia, and potential visa-free arrangements for organized tourists to India — developments that could modestly lift outbound travel demand and reflect easing bilateral relations, with limited direct market impact.

Analysis

Market structure: Visa liberalization for Russians to ~120 destinations incrementally boosts demand on Russia–China/ME leisure and pilgrimage routes; direct winners are airlines with existing route infrastructure (AFLT.ME, 0753.HK, 0670.HK), global OTAs (BKNG, EXPE), and hospitality chains (MAR, HLT). Competitive dynamics favor incumbents with slots and bilateral traffic rights; expect seat capacity to rise ~10–25% on reopened corridors within 3–9 months, pressuring yields short‑term but increasing ancillary spend per passenger.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include renewed sanctions, payment-network exclusions, or a regional health shock that could erase 3–9 month upside; probability low–medium but high impact. Immediate market moves likely muted (days); measurable booking/traffic effects should appear in monthly OAG/IATA data within 1–3 months and crystallize in summer 2025; hidden dependency: cross‑border card acceptance and FX convertibility may cap realized tourist spend.

Trade implications: Implement targeted exposure to travel recovery rather than broad tourism beta — use JETS (U.S.) for airline basket exposure, selective longs in Air China (0753.HK) and Booking (BKNG) call spreads to capture 3–9 month upside, and underweight pure-play Russian domestic financials that bear FX outflow risk. Manage sizing (1–3% per position) and use seat-capacity and visa treaty announcements as scaling triggers.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates payment-friction and ruble outflow that could mute domestic tourism benefits; market may overprice a permanent demand shift—this is likely a 12–24 month reallocation of flows, not an earnings re-rating catalyst for all travel names. Watch for asymmetric downside in names dependent on sanctioned payment rails and for route-specific overcapacity that compresses yields.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2.0% portfolio long position in JETS (U.S. ticker JETS ETF) within 30 days to capture airline capacity redeployment to Russia–China/Middle East routes; target +20% in 6–9 months, set a hard stop at -12%; scale to 4.0% if OAG monthly seat data shows >15% MoM increase on Russia-linked routes.
• Buy 3–6 month call spread on Booking Holdings (BKNG) to express upside in OTA bookings from eased Russian travel (buy 20% ITM calls / sell 35% ITM calls, expiry 3–6 months); allocate 0.8% notional, max loss limited to premium, take profits at 50–100% premium gain or if Russian booking growth <5% MoM for two consecutive months.
• Take a 1.5% long position in Air China (0753.HK) and/or China Eastern (0670.HK) over 6–12 months to play direct route reopening; target +25–30% upside, stop -18%; increase exposure if bilateral flight frequencies announced to return to ≥75% of pre‑2019 levels within 3 months.
• Avoid/underweight exposure >2% to Russian domestic banks and payment processors for 3–12 months; if Visa/Mastercard reconciliation or alternative card-rail announcements occur within 60 days, reassess and consider tactical small longs (≤1%) only after clear card-rail resolution.