Here Is How Much Upside SpaceX Stock Has Left After Its Post-IPO Sell-off

SpaceX’s stock has pulled back since its June 12 IPO ($135/share; peak $225.64), now trading around $170, despite a still-extreme valuation (~$2.16T market cap, ~116x trailing revenue). The article flags heavy risk from a $1.77T IPO valuation and ongoing unprofitability (Starlink profits offset by losses in space/AI), alongside reliance on debt and dilutive deals. While Nasdaq-100 inclusion on July 7 could provide a near-term bid floor, lockup expirations starting late July/early August through year-end could pressure the shares as early investors cash out.

Analysis

The real mechanism here is not index inclusion itself but the clash between mechanical demand and a very large supply overhang. In a name trading at triple-digit revenue multiples, passive buying can cushion the tape for a few sessions, but it rarely anchors valuation once insiders and early holders can sell into strength. That makes the next 4-12 weeks more about float expansion and borrow dynamics than about fundamentals.

The second-order effect is that the market will start pricing every capital raise, acquisition, or stock-based transaction as dilution rather than growth. That is especially toxic for a business trying to fund multiple ambitious initiatives at once: the higher the cost of equity, the more management is pushed toward debt, which compresses optionality if rates back up or execution slips. Competitors with cleaner capital structures and lower growth expectations can outperform on a relative basis even if they grow slower.

Contrarianly, the crowd may be underestimating how quickly sentiment can flip once the index event passes. If post-inclusion volume normalizes and the first unlock window lands without a large uptick in insider selling, the short thesis gets crowded fast. The thesis is falsified if the stock can absorb supply while retaining elevated revenue growth into the next print and if management shows a credible path to self-funding, because then the multiple is no longer just a narrative premium but a scarcity premium.

Key Decisions for Investors

• If SPCX is borrowable, initiate a tactical short into the July 7 inclusion pop and add on any post-rebalance strength; target a 10-20% decline into the late-July/early-August lockup window, with a hard stop above the post-inclusion high.
• If listed options are liquid, use a 1-3 month bearish put spread on SPCX rather than naked puts to limit theta bleed; this is a timing trade, not a long-dated valuation call.
• For a cleaner relative-value expression, short SPCX against long QQQ after the inclusion event; the idea is that passive-flow support is temporary while unlock-related supply is persistent over the next 1-3 months.
• Set a watch item on insider-sale filings and any secondary financing announcement; if the company front-loads supply or uses stock for acquisitions again, increase conviction on the short.
• Do not overreact to the inclusion headline in NFLX, NVDA, or TGT; there is no obvious direct read-through, so any trade should be driven by SPCX supply/catalyst data rather than broad sentiment spillover.