Jones Trading Maintains GEO Group (GEO) Buy Recommendation

Jones Trading has maintained a Buy recommendation for GEO Group (NYSE:GEO), with an average one-year price target of $38.56, implying a significant 154.83% upside from its recent closing price of $15.13. This positive outlook is supported by projected annual revenue of $2,736MM, an 8.08% increase, and a non-GAAP EPS of $1.51. Institutional sentiment remains largely bullish, with 547 funds reporting positions, a 1.86% increase in owners, and a 1.70% rise in total institutional shares, further underscored by a low put/call ratio of 0.25, despite some large individual holders decreasing their allocations.

Analysis

Jones Trading has reiterated a "Buy" recommendation for GEO Group (NYSE:GEO) as of November 7, 2025, with an average one-year price target of $38.56. This target implies a substantial 154.83% upside from the recent closing price of $15.13, supported by projected annual revenue growth of 8.08% to $2,736MM and a non-GAAP EPS of $1.51.

Overall institutional sentiment for GEO appears bullish, evidenced by an increase of 10 owners (1.86%) and a 1.70% rise in total institutional shares over the last quarter, alongside a low put/call ratio of 0.25. The average portfolio weight dedicated to GEO also increased by 16.94% to 0.30%, indicating growing conviction among a broad base of institutional investors.

However, specific institutional holdings reveal divergent strategies. Continental General Insurance significantly increased its stake by 90.19%, while major players like Goldman Sachs Group and IJR reduced their shareholdings and portfolio allocations. Vanguard Total Stock Market Index Fund also increased shares but decreased allocation.

This mixed institutional activity suggests a potential divergence in conviction regarding GEO's future performance, despite the strong analyst price target. Investors should weigh the significant upside potential against the nuanced institutional positioning.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should critically evaluate the substantial 154.83% implied upside and the underlying assumptions of Jones Trading's $38.56 price target, considering GEO's projected 8.08% revenue growth and $1.51 EPS.
• Monitor the nuanced institutional positioning, as aggregate inflows are strong but specific large funds like Goldman Sachs are reducing exposure while others like Continental General Insurance are significantly increasing theirs.
• Assess the risk factors associated with the wide analyst price target range ($30.30 to $47.25) and the long-term sustainability of GEO's business model, which may explain the divergent institutional conviction.