Jefferies upgrades Miniso stock rating to Buy on China store expansion

Miniso (MNSO) reported robust second-quarter 2025 results, significantly exceeding analyst expectations with revenue up 23.1% year-over-year to RMB4.97 billion and adjusted EPS of RMB2.24. This strong performance, driven by positive same-store sales in China and resumed new store openings, prompted Jefferies to upgrade the stock from Hold to Buy with a $26.20 price target, and BofA Securities to upgrade from Underperform to Neutral with a $24.00 target. The company also raised its 2025 sales guidance to 25% growth, signaling confidence in its Chinese market expansion and strategic adjustments to its international operations.

Analysis

MINISO Group Holding Limited (MNSO) has demonstrated a significant operational and financial turnaround in its second-quarter 2025 results, signaling a positive inflection point for the company. Revenue growth accelerated to 23.1% year-over-year, reaching RMB4.97 billion and surpassing consensus estimates. More notably, adjusted earnings per ADS of RMB2.24 beat analyst projections by RMB0.49, a stark improvement from the previous quarter's profit decline. This performance, driven by a recovery in same-store sales in China and the resumption of new store openings, has triggered a bullish shift in analyst sentiment. Jefferies upgraded the stock to Buy with a $26.20 price target, citing earnings momentum and the market having priced in prior concerns. BofA Securities also upgraded its rating to Neutral with a $24.00 target. The company's own outlook has strengthened, with management raising its 2025 sales growth guidance to 25%, underpinned by a focused expansion in China, a strategic recalibration of its international store openings, and a planned entry into the artist intellectual property segment.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the strong earnings beat, raised guidance, and dual analyst upgrades, investors should consider the recent 12% stock surge as potentially the start of a re-rating, as the current price remains below both new price targets.
• Monitor the sustainability of the turnaround in China's same-store sales figures and the execution of the domestic new store opening plan, as these are the core drivers behind the revised, more optimistic corporate guidance.
• The strategic shift to slow international direct-to-consumer openings while expanding into artist IP should be watched closely, as it presents a potential new growth vector but also introduces execution risk that could impact future performance.