ECB Increasingly Likely to Hike in Near Future, Muller Says

The European Central Bank could raise borrowing costs if the Iran war persists, signaling a more hawkish policy bias tied to geopolitical risk. The comment from outgoing Governing Council member Madis Muller suggests prolonged conflict may keep upward pressure on inflation and rates. The immediate market impact is likely limited, but the message reinforces rate-risk sensitivity across European assets.

Analysis

The European Central Bank could raise borrowing costs if the Iran war persists, signaling a more hawkish policy bias tied to geopolitical risk. The comment from outgoing Governing Council member Madis Muller suggests prolonged conflict may keep upward pressure on inflation and rates. The immediate market impact is likely limited, but the message reinforces rate-risk sensitivity across European assets.