Zacks' Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) methodology identifies stocks with a high probability of positive earnings surprises by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate. Historically, combining a positive ESP with a Zacks Rank #3 or stronger has resulted in a 70% positive bottom-line surprise rate and averaged 28% annual returns over a 10-year backtest. Current examples like Corning (GLW), with a +1.90% ESP, and Accenture (ACN), with a +1.15% ESP, suggest potential for upcoming positive earnings beats, offering a strategic tool for investors seeking pre-earnings trading opportunities.
The analysis centers on a quantitative strategy, the Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), which aims to identify companies poised to exceed earnings expectations. This model's efficacy is predicated on comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the consensus estimate, with the underlying thesis that recent analyst revisions carry more weight. According to the provided 10-year backtest, combining a positive ESP with a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold) or better has historically resulted in a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time, yielding average annual returns of approximately 28%. The methodology flags two specific technology sector stocks. Corning (GLW) is presented as a strong candidate, holding a Zacks #2 (Buy) rating and a positive ESP of +1.90%, derived from a Most Accurate Estimate of $0.67 versus a consensus of $0.66 ahead of its October 28, 2025 report. Accenture (ACN) is also highlighted, though with a slightly less bullish profile, carrying a Zacks #3 (Hold) rating and a +1.15% ESP, based on estimates of $3.76 versus $3.71 for its December 18, 2025 report. The overall sentiment is strongly positive, suggesting these quantitative signals indicate a higher probability of upcoming earnings beats for both firms.
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Overall Sentiment
strongly positive
Sentiment Score
0.80
Ticker Sentiment