Fox News Poll: Views are divided on US action against Iran

A Fox News poll (Feb 28–Mar 2, 2026; n=1,004, ±3 pts) finds 61% of registered voters view Iran as a real national security threat while approval of the U.S. strikes in Operation Epic Fury is split 50/50. Fifty-one percent say President Trump’s handling of Iran has made the U.S. less safe (up from 43% last July), his foreign policy approval is 40/60, and overall job approval is 43/57, with stark partisan divides (over 80% of Republicans approve the strikes versus nearly 80% of Democrats who disapprove). These results point to elevated political and geopolitical risk and potential sustained risk-off sentiment across sensitive asset classes.

Analysis

Market structure: Near-term winners are large defense primes (LMT, RTX, GD) and integrated oil majors (XOM, CVX, XLE ETF) which gain pricing power from higher defense budgets and potential sustained oil premia; clear losers are airlines and travel names (AAL, DAL, JETS ETF) and EM-exposed cyclicals if oil spikes. Supply/demand signals: a credible threat to Strait of Hormuz or insurance-cost shocks could cut seaborne crude flows enough to lift Brent >$15–$25 within weeks, tightening market inventories and pushing refining margins higher.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a wider regional war (low probability, high impact) driving Brent >$100 and stagflation, cyber/insurance shocks to shipping, and strike-counterstrike escalation that lasts months. Immediate (days) effect = volatility spike (VIX +10–15 pts) and Treasury bid; short-term (weeks–months) = earnings revisions for airlines and higher capex for defense; long-term (12–24 months) = reallocation into defense and energy in budgets/valuations. Hidden dependencies include marine insurance/state-backed shipping corridors and Congressional funding cycles that can amplify or dampen spending.

Trade implications: Favor 2–4% tactical longs in LMT/RTX and 2–3% in XOM/CVX or XLE for 3–12 months; hedge equity beta with 1–2% long TLT or IEF if VIX>25 or equities sell off >5%. Buy GLD or GDX (1–2%) as convex inflation/flight-to-safety exposure. Use options: buy 3-month call spreads on LMT/RTX (pay small debit to limit IV risk) and buy 60–90 day puts on JETS or AAL sized 1–2% to capture downside if conflict escalates.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates mean reversion—short-lived oil spikes often reverse within 2–3 months absent supply shocks; defense winners can be crowded and rerate quickly into news calm. Unintended consequence: sustained oil >$90 could force Fed hawkishness, hurting cyclicals and boosting real yields — a scenario that would punish long-duration growth names. Monitor Brent, VIX, 10-year yield and Congressional defense votes; exit energy longs if Brent < $75 for four consecutive weeks or take profits on defense after a 20% rally.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Lockheed Martin (LMT) and Raytheon (RTX) combined (equal weight) as a 3–12 month trade; use 3-month call spreads to cap premium if IV > 30% and take profit on a 20% move higher or if public de-escalation reduces strikes by 50%.
• Add a 2% tactical long to integrated energy majors (XOM and CVX split) or XLE ETF for oil upside exposure; set an exit/trim rule to sell 50% of position if Brent drops below $75 for four straight weeks or take profits if Brent > $100.
• Initiate a 1–2% short via puts on airline exposure (buy 90-day puts on JETS ETF or AAL) sized to capture a fall if conflict escalates; cover if VIX > 40 or broad market drawdown exceeds 12%.
• Allocate 1–2% to GLD or GDX as hedges against risk-off and inflation; increase to 3% if 10-year Treasury yield falls >50bps in 10 trading days or Brent spikes >$20 in two weeks.
• Deploy 2% into Treasuries (IEF or TLT ladder) as tactical hedge if VIX crosses above 25 or equities decline >5% intraday; reduce exposure when equities stabilize and 10-year yield reclaims prior support level (e.g., +30bps from trough).