Micron (MU) Is About to Report Q4 Earnings. Here’s What to Expect from the Chip Stock

Micron (MU) is scheduled to report Q4 FY25 earnings on September 23, with its stock up over 93% year-to-date, largely driven by robust demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips in the AI sector. The company previously raised its guidance to $2.85 adjusted EPS and $11.2 billion in revenue, exceeding Wall Street's consensus of $2.81 EPS and $11.12 billion, continuing a nine-quarter streak of beating estimates. Analysts maintain bullish ratings, citing constrained DRAM and NAND supply through 2026 and accelerating AI demand, with a key focus on HBM pricing for calendar 2026 and potential upside to the November quarter outlook. Options traders are pricing in an expected 10.3% move in either direction post-earnings, reflecting high market anticipation.

Analysis

Micron (MU) is approaching its Q4 FY25 earnings report with significant positive momentum, evidenced by a 93% year-to-date stock rally fueled by the artificial intelligence sector's demand for high-bandwidth memory (HBM). Expectations are exceptionally high, as the company has already raised its Q4 guidance to $11.2 billion in revenue and $2.85 in adjusted EPS, figures that notably exceed Wall Street's consensus estimates and extend a nine-quarter streak of earnings beats. Analyst sentiment is strongly bullish, with firms like Rosenblatt and TD Cowen reiterating Buy ratings and raising price targets based on a structural supply constraint in DRAM and NAND through 2026. The key focus for the upcoming report has shifted beyond a simple Q4 beat, which is largely priced in, to the forward-looking guidance for the November quarter and management's commentary on HBM pricing for calendar 2026. Despite the bullish consensus, the stock's valuation presents a near-term challenge; the average price target of $165.89 implies only a modest 2% upside, and some technical indicators suggest overbought conditions. The options market underscores this tension, pricing in a significant 10.3% post-earnings move, reflecting market anticipation of high volatility and a binary reaction to the results and outlook.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given that an earnings beat is largely anticipated due to the company's own guidance upgrade, investors should focus on the November quarter outlook, as a significant guidance raise could be the primary catalyst for further stock appreciation.
• Monitor management's commentary on the average selling price (ASP) trends for DRAM and NAND, and critically, seek any confirmation of locked-in HBM pricing for calendar 2026, as this underpins the long-term cycle thesis.
• Considering the 93% year-to-date rally and the substantial 10.3% move priced in by options markets, investors should be prepared for significant post-earnings volatility and may consider hedging strategies to protect against a potential 'sell the news' reaction if guidance fails to exceed elevated expectations.