Gold still belongs in portfolios, but AI and the green transition are creating bigger opportunities elsewhere in commodities – FTSE Russell

A research firm says gold should remain a core portfolio anchor amid macro volatility, but investors seeking more active long-term commodity exposure should also focus on metals linked to artificial intelligence and the energy transition. The note is thematic rather than data-driven, implying modest positive positioning for AI/energy-transition metal demand rather than an immediate market-moving catalyst.

Analysis

This reads less like a commodity call than a factor rotation away from crowded defensive hedges into scarcity assets with visible end-demand. The market already owns gold as a volatility hedge; the better risk/reward over the next 12-36 months is in metals where AI data-center buildout and grid upgrades create relatively inelastic demand, especially copper and uranium. That favors producers with existing permitted capacity and low execution risk over juniors and over thematic ETFs that mix in weak balance sheets.

Second-order effects matter: if hyperscalers keep spending, the bottleneck shifts from chips to power and wires, which lifts copper intensity per MW and pushes utility/nuclear procurement higher. That is structurally bullish for FCX, SCCO, UEC, URA, and possibly MP/REE names only if policy and refining constraints loosen; otherwise the biggest beneficiaries are established miners and processors, not story stocks. In the energy-transition complex, lithium and nickel remain more fragile because supply response is faster and substitution risk is real, so any upside there is likely to be shorter-lived and more policy-driven.

The main risk is that the AI capex cycle decelerates before physical demand shows up in shipments, or that utilities solve power needs with more gas than nuclear, muting the uranium leg. Over 1-3 months, this is mostly a positioning trade; over 6-18 months, it becomes a capacity and permitting story. The contrarian point: gold may be the over-owned trade here, while industrial metals with genuine end-market scarcity are still under-owned in institutional portfolios.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long FCX / short GDX on a 3-6 month horizon: express the view that real industrial scarcity from AI/grid buildout beats crowded gold defensiveness; target a 10-15% relative move, exit if gold outperforms copper for two consecutive earnings seasons.
• Long URA or a basket of UEC/CCJ on weakness for 6-12 months: best asymmetry if utilities and hyperscalers keep signing power contracts; falsify if new reactor approvals or uranium contracting stalls into year-end.
• Prefer SCCO over higher-cost copper names on a 12-month view: low-cost exposure should capture margin expansion first if copper tightens; avoid juniors until permitting/capex visibility improves.
• Watch-list only for lithium ETFs/suppliers (e.g., LIT, ALB, SQM): the transition theme is real but supply elasticity keeps the risk/reward less attractive than copper/uranium unless battery demand re-accelerates.