Interim report April 1 – June 30, 2026

Q2 2026 revenue jumped 43% to SEK 1,558m and operating profit turned to SEK 68m from SEK -5m, with operating margin improving to 4.3% (from -0.4%). However, net result fell to SEK 45m vs SEK -51 previously, while operating cash flow declined to SEK 207m from SEK 262. For Jan–Jun 2026, revenue rose 17% to SEK 2,686m and operating profit increased to SEK 104m (from SEK 9), but margin/earnings dynamics remain mixed given cash flow and bottom-line volatility.

Analysis

The important read-through is not top-line growth; it is that fixed-cost absorption is finally turning the business from negative leverage to positive leverage. At this starting margin base, every 100 bps of additional operating margin can add a disproportionate amount of EBIT, so the equity can re-rate quickly if management proves the inflection is repeatable over the next 1-3 quarters. That said, this is still a low-quality recovery until cash conversion catches up; operating profit improving while operating cash flow does not keep pace usually means working-capital drag or timing effects, and those can reverse just as fast.

Competitively, a firm in this shape often forces peers to choose between defending share and defending margin. If the growth is broad-based rather than one-off, smaller rivals with weaker balance sheets are more exposed to pricing pressure, but larger incumbents with better procurement and financing terms can absorb it longer and potentially take share back if this company over-extends. The market may be underestimating how fragile the current operating margin is: in a low-single-digit EBIT model, a modest slowdown in volume or a few hundred bps of cost inflation can erase most of the apparent improvement.

Contrarian view: the consensus may be too focused on the cash-flow shortfall and missing that earnings sensitivity is now asymmetric to the upside. If this print is the first sign of durable utilization recovery, the stock can outpace fundamentals for several quarters. The falsifier is simple: if the next update shows margins stalling below roughly 4% and cash generation still lagging, this is likely just a cyclical bounce rather than a structural rerating candidate.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No immediate directional trade until the next quarter confirms that operating margin can hold above 4% and cash flow starts converging with EBIT; treat the current move as a confirmation watch, not a conviction buy.
• If the stock sells off 5-10% on concerns about cash conversion, only buy the dip if management reaffirms full-year guidance and signals second-half margin expansion; otherwise avoid getting trapped in a low-quality growth rebound.
• For existing holders, tighten risk if the next release shows margin backsliding below 3% or another year-over-year decline in operating cash flow despite revenue growth; those are the key falsifiers for a rerating.
• Watch for a multi-quarter rerating only if revenue growth stays broad-based and incremental margins remain positive; that would support a longer-dated hold rather than a tactical trade.