What are today's mortgage interest rates: February 13, 2026?

Recent economic data show unemployment and inflation easing, and mortgage markets are reflecting that improvement: Zillow reports average purchase rates at 5.87% for a 30‑year fixed and 5.25% for a 15‑year as of Feb. 13, 2026, while refinance averages are 6.46% (30‑year) and a 5.59% median for 15‑year terms. With no Fed meeting until March and limited near‑term expectations for rate cuts, markets may remain relatively stable, creating a potentially attractive window for borrowers to shop lenders and consider refinancing or rate‑buydown strategies.

Analysis

Market structure: A sustained move to sub-6% 30‑yr purchase rates (Zillow 5.87%) favors homebuilders (new starts, margin recovery), mortgage originators/servicers and agency MBS holders via higher volume and tighter spreads; losers are highly levered mortgage REITs and long‑duration, unhedged portfolios if yields reprice. Expect transactional origination +5–15% over 3–9 months if rates hold in mid‑5s, boosting RH of title/insurers and building materials but pressuring bank NIMs after initial origination revenue wave.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a Fed hawkish surprise or a durable CPI reacceleration that lifts 10‑yr Treasury >40–50bps (rapidly reversing refi economics), or an MBS spread shock if liquidity thins; immediate (days) sensitivity to CPI/payrolls, short‑term (weeks/months) refinancing surge, long‑term (quarters) housing supply tightness amplifying prices. Hidden dependencies: refinance elasticity constrained by existing low‑rate cohorts (large pool of 3–4% mortgages) and local inventory; catalysts to watch: weekly mortgage apps, CPI, 10‑yr breakpoints (3.8%/4.2%).

Trade implications: Favor cyclical housing equities and agency MBS exposure while de‑risking mortgage REIT convexity. Use 3–12 month timeframes: establish selective long positions in builders (LEN, DHI) with defined stops, add MBB/MBS duration when 10‑yr <3.8%, and hedge via short positions or puts on NLY/AGNC if 10‑yr >+30bps from entry.

Contrarian angles: Consensus underestimates that many homeowners won’t refinance (sticky 3–4% cohort), capping refi upside — so pure refi‑exposed equities can be overvalued. Conversely, the market may underprice earnings leverage in builders if rates persist <6% and inventory remains constrained; historical parallels (2019/2021) show quick, concentrated gains then mean reversion, so size and risk control matter.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long split between Lennar (LEN) and D.R. Horton (DHI) within 2 weeks while 30‑yr mortgage offers ≤6%; target +20% return in 6–12 months, hard stop‑loss at −12%.
• Reduce exposure to mortgage REITs (Annaly NLY, AGNC) by 50% within 10 business days; redeploy proceeds to agency MBS ETF (iShares MBB) for 3–6 months or keep cash if 10‑yr Treasury rises >40bps.
• Allocate 3% to iShares MBS ETF (MBB) or equivalent agency MBS duration if 10‑yr Treasury trades below 3.8%; trim/exit if 10‑yr rallies >40bps from entry or if MBS spreads widen >25bps.
• Implement a directional pair: long 2% Regional Bank ETF (KRE) vs short 1% NLY (or AGNC) for 3–6 months to capture origination/servicing upside vs. convexity risk; unwind if relative performance diverges >8% adverse or 10‑yr moves >50bps.