Kalshi traders see roughly 50% odds of a rate hike in 2026 as Fed is split on policy

The latest Fed minutes highlighted a divided view on the path of rates, with Kalshi pricing showing a 54% likelihood of a rate hike at some point before 2027. The market signal implies ongoing uncertainty around the hiking/dot-path, which can shift Treasury yield expectations and equity rate sensitivity.

Analysis

The latest Fed minutes highlighted a divided view on the path of rates, with Kalshi pricing showing a 54% likelihood of a rate hike at some point before 2027. The market signal implies ongoing uncertainty around the hiking/dot-path, which can shift Treasury yield expectations and equity rate sensitivity.