US-Iran escalation could threaten 2027 oil market surplus, IEA says

Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities could disrupt the IEA’s outlook for a significant oil surplus in 2025. The Strait of Hormuz reopening boosted global supply in June, but volumes still remain below pre-war levels, leaving supply vulnerable to renewed disruption. The risk is downside to surplus expectations and potential upside pressure on oil prices.

Analysis

Escalating U.S.-Iran hostilities could disrupt the IEA’s outlook for a significant oil surplus in 2025. The Strait of Hormuz reopening boosted global supply in June, but volumes still remain below pre-war levels, leaving supply vulnerable to renewed disruption. The risk is downside to surplus expectations and potential upside pressure on oil prices.