Famine declared in two Sudanese cities cut off by war, fragile gains elsewhere

Famine has been officially declared in El Fasher and Kadugli, Sudan, due to prolonged conflict and restricted humanitarian access, leading to severe food and medical shortages. While some areas have seen fragile, localized improvements in food security, 21.2 million people (45% of the population) still face high levels of acute food insecurity, with the broader economy shattered and infrastructure destroyed. Malnutrition rates are alarmingly high in besieged areas, and hunger is projected to worsen significantly from February as food stocks deplete and hostilities persist, indicating a deepening humanitarian and economic crisis with regional implications.

Analysis

Famine has been officially declared in El Fasher and Kadugli, Sudan, by UN agencies, underscoring a critical humanitarian crisis driven by prolonged conflict and restricted aid access. Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates are alarmingly high, ranging from 38% to 75% in El Fasher and nearly 30% in Kadugli, signaling severe health implications. This declaration follows the fall of government-held El Fasher after over 500 days of siege, intensifying the crisis.

The broader crisis sees 21.2 million people, or 45% of Sudan's population, facing high levels of acute food insecurity, despite a slight improvement in some areas. Localized gains in food security are noted in Khartoum, Al Jazirah, and Sennar due to eased conflict, leading to 3.4 million people no longer at crisis levels. However, these improvements are deemed "fragile" and "limited," with the national economy shattered and vital infrastructure damaged.

Active conflict persists in western regions, including North and South Darfur and Kordofan, where famine conditions are projected to worsen from February as food stocks deplete. The Famine Review Committee also identifies a risk of famine in 20 additional areas, highlighting the expanding scope of the crisis. Collapsed health and sanitation systems are concurrently driving outbreaks of cholera, malaria, and measles.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor geopolitical developments in Sudan and the broader Horn of Africa for potential regional instability, which could impact commodity flows or regional asset valuations.
• Assess the potential for indirect impacts on global agricultural commodity markets, given the severe food insecurity and disrupted local supply chains.
• Consider the humanitarian crisis as a significant ESG risk factor for any companies with direct or indirect exposure to the region, including supply chain vulnerabilities or operational disruptions.