H-1B Fee Risks Up to 5,500 Work Permits a Month, JPMorgan Says

JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists project that the White House's new $100,000 fee on H-1B visa applications could reduce monthly work authorizations by up to 5,500. While the overall impact on the U.S. labor market is considered small, the new fee is expected to disproportionately affect technology companies and immigrants from India.

Analysis

A new White House policy implementing a $100,000 fee on H-1B visa applications is expected to create specific headwinds for certain industries, according to an analysis by JPMorgan Chase & Co. economists. The research projects that this fee could reduce new work authorizations by up to 5,500 per month. While the economists, Abiel Reinhart and Michael Feroli, note this reduction is "fairly small" in the context of the entire U.S. labor market, they highlight a disproportionate negative impact on technology companies and immigrants from India. This regulatory action introduces a significant new cost variable and a potential constraint on talent acquisition for firms that are highly dependent on the H-1B program, a common characteristic of the U.S. tech sector.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors with holdings in the technology sector should assess the potential for margin compression in companies known for high H-1B visa dependency due to these new, direct labor-related costs.
• It is prudent to monitor technology firms for any adjustments to their hiring strategies or guidance on operational costs in response to this new fee.
• While the immediate, broad market impact is assessed as low, this policy could signal a more restrictive long-term environment for skilled immigration, a key input for growth in the U.S. technology and IT services industries.