US experts say American strikes on Iran may amount to war crimes

Over 100 U.S. international law experts warned that recent and threatened American strikes on Iran could amount to war crimes after President Trump reiterated threats to hit Iran's power, desalination and energy infrastructure and said the U.S. would 'hit them extremely hard' over the next 2-3 weeks. The Iranian Red Crescent reports 175 killed in a Feb. 28 strike on a girls' school; joint U.S.-Israeli strikes and follow-on attacks have killed thousands and displaced millions, creating acute regional instability. Implication for portfolios: elevated geopolitical risk is likely to drive risk-off flows, raise oil and energy price volatility and increase demand for defense and safe-haven assets.

Analysis

Legal and reputational pressure on military actors is likely to change the toolset of engagement: expect a shift from high-collateral kinetic campaigns toward deniable, low-civilian-impact operations (cyber, standoff precision, proxies) that favor ISR, electronic warfare and cyber contractors. That reallocation typically manifests within weeks for tactical spend and over 6–18 months for procurement budgets, concentrating upside for niche vendors rather than broad munitions suppliers.

Rhetoric that raises the perceived risk to critical energy and maritime infrastructure will widen insurance and freight premia through the Strait of Hormuz and nearby choke points. Market mechanics suggest tanker and war-risk insurance could add $2–6/bbl to seaborne crude delivered costs in stressed weeks, while longer disruptions re-price refining and LNG flows, benefiting storage, logistics and re-routing specialists.

Macro flow: expect knee-jerk risk-off rallies into USD/Treasuries and gold for days-to-weeks, followed by an inflationary impulse if oil moves sustainably higher for months — a two-phase profile that favors convex hedges (options) near-term and directional commodity/defense exposure medium-term. Catalysts that would reverse the trend include credible legal constraints or diplomatic de-escalation (fast), and decisive shifts in battlefield attribution or a major strike on energy infrastructure (medium-to-long).

Key Decisions for Investors

• Buy a 6–12 month call spread on RTX (Raytheon Technologies) — entry: initiate a cheap debit call spread to cap premium outlay; rationale: asymmetric payoff if procurement and ISR/cyber budgets reallocate. Risk/reward: limited downside (premium) vs 3–4x upside if contract cadence accelerates; stop at 30% premium loss.
• Energy pair: long XOM (Exxon) 3–9 months and short VLO (Valero) 3–9 months — entry: size as a balanced pair trade to capture upstream margin capture vs refining crack compression under chokepoint risk. Risk/reward: if Brent rises $5–10, expect XOM to outperform VLO by ~15–25%; stop-loss: tighten if WTI moves <-$2 on de-escalation signals.
• Buy GLD (gold) 1–3 month call spread as a short-duration tail hedge — entry: purchase modest notional to protect portfolio against abrupt risk-off and inflationary oil shock. Risk/reward: low cost hedge with 2–3x payoff on a sharp safe-haven move; unwind on sustained volatility normalization.
• Short JETS (U.S. Global Jets ETF) via a 1–3 month put spread — entry: expect near-term travel/airline sensitivity to spike risk premia and reduce demand on routes crossing risk zones. Risk/reward: limited carry cost with asymmetric payoff if capacity retrenchment and insurance costs depress airline earnings; cover if oil falls >$5 on credible de-escalation within 10 trading days.