The SpaceX IPO Is Coming. These Are the Stocks That Stand to Profit Most.

Rocket Lab reported $602 million in revenue in 2025, up 38% year over year, with backlog rising 73% to $1.85 billion. Planet Labs posted fiscal 2026 revenue of $306 million and saw backlog increase 79% to $900 million. The article argues that renewed enthusiasm around SpaceX's potential IPO could lift adjacent space companies, especially Rocket Lab and Planet Labs.

Analysis

The important second-order effect is not simply “more space spending,” but a re-rating of the entire category from hobby-like optionality to procurement-backed infrastructure. A public SpaceX listing would likely pull in a new marginal buyer base that indexes the theme, compressing discount rates for adjacent platforms with credible revenue and backlog conversion. That favors the names with the cleanest path to repeatable contract growth, while punishing anything that still looks like science-project optionality rather than mission-critical infrastructure.

RKLB appears better positioned than PL to capture the next leg of enthusiasm because it has more obvious operating leverage to launch cadence, defense demand, and vertically integrated margin expansion. The bigger risk is that the market extrapolates backlog too aggressively: in this industry, backlog is not equivalent to near-term cash flow because execution, launch delays, and customer timing can push revenue recognition out by quarters. If SpaceX’s IPO becomes a valuation spectacle, it can temporarily lift all boats, but it also raises the bar for every listed peer by forcing investors to compare growth rates and unit economics against a private-market benchmark that may be too rich to sustain.

PL is the more interesting contrarian setup because the commercial earth-observation thesis is broader but less scarce, which makes it easier to love in a bull market and harder to defend if sentiment cools. Its rerating is likely to be more duration-sensitive than RKLB’s: it benefits from lower rates, stronger government budgets, and AI/data-analytics monetization, but it is also more exposed to a normalization of enthusiasm once the IPO-driven attention cycle fades. The consensus may be underestimating how quickly space multiples can compress if the IPO window broadens supply of public space exposure faster than the fundamental revenue base expands.

The cleanest trade is to own the stronger operating momentum and fade the more sentiment-dependent leg of the rally. The space basket is still young enough that narrative can dominate for weeks, but over a 3-6 month horizon, the market will likely differentiate between backlog quality, margin progression, and actual conversion to free cash flow.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long RKLB on a 1-3 month horizon; use pullbacks to add, with the thesis that it benefits most from a SpaceX-led multiple expansion and has the clearest operating leverage. Risk/reward is favorable as long as backlog conversion stays on track; trim if the stock starts pricing in flawless execution well ahead of revenue.
• Pair trade: long RKLB / short PL for 2-4 months. The idea is that RKLB should capture more of the ‘infrastructure + defense’ premium, while PL is more exposed to sentiment reversal once the IPO catalyst passes. Cover if PL wins new large government contracts or if earth-observation becomes the dominant market subtheme.
• Consider buying 3-6 month RKLB call spreads rather than stock if implied volatility stays elevated. This caps premium paid into a headline-driven move while preserving upside if the IPO date and launch cadence keep attention on the sector.
• Reduce chase risk on PL after sharp pops; if entering, prefer a staged entry over 6-8 weeks. The stock is likely to be more vulnerable to a post-IPO attention fade, so keep tighter stops and be ready to exit if backlog enthusiasm stops translating into revenue acceleration.
• Avoid shorting the group outright into the IPO window; the near-term flow could stay mechanically supportive. Reassess any short after the first 30-60 days post-listing, when valuation comparison to SpaceX and evidence of capital rotation become clearer.