Joby Aviation Stock Is More Than 60% Off Its High. Is a Reverse Stock Split Imminent?

Joby Aviation shares have fallen about 62% from their recent $20/share peak to roughly $7.58 today, one of the steepest declines in the eVTOL space. The article argues a reverse stock split is unlikely because the NYSE $1-per-share threshold is well below current levels and the stock has traded much lower historically (as low as ~$3.18 in late 2022 and ~$4.54 in mid-2024) without needing one. Management is emphasizing confidence-building progress on certification, partnerships, infrastructure, and commercial readiness, which a reverse split would undermine.

Analysis

The market is over-focusing on the optics of a reverse split and underweighting the real issue: capital structure flexibility. At this stage, JOBY does not have a listing-mechanics problem; it has a financing-perception problem, and in pre-revenue hardware names that can be more damaging because every incremental equity dollar becomes a referendum on whether the model needs more cash before scale.

Second-order, the weaker tape relative to ACHR matters more than the absolute price. In eVTOL, the next financing round usually clears based on momentum and perceived survivability, so the weaker name tends to suffer a higher dilution discount even if operational execution is comparable. That feedback loop can compress multiple expansion for JOBY faster than for peers if the sector gets another risk-off leg.

Contrarian view: the consensus risk is overstating reverse-split odds and understating runway risk. A reverse split is still a low-probability event over the next 3-6 months unless the stock deteriorates sharply, but a small setback in certification timing or a future capital raise would have a much larger impact on fair value. The thesis is falsified if management demonstrates funded runway through commercialization without an equity raise and the shares reclaim the high single digits on improving volume.

Key Decisions for Investors

• No immediate long in JOBY on this headline; use it as an alert that the real catalyst is the next financing or runway update, not the reverse-split debate. Reassess only if management can clearly bridge the next 2-3 quarters without dilution.
• Relative-value idea: short JOBY / long ACHR on any sector-wide eVTOL bounce over the next 1-4 weeks. The trade is about capital-markets credibility and dilution asymmetry, not operational quality; cover if JOBY outperforms ACHR by more than ~15% on a credible strategic financing or certification milestone.
• If options liquidity is adequate, consider a 3-6 month JOBY put spread into the next earnings/capital-markets window to express financing-risk skew. The setup works best if implied volatility is still muted versus historical event risk.
• Set a hard alert for any secondary offering, ATM usage, or partnership announcement tied to funding in JOBY. That is the real downside catalyst; a filing or pricing event would likely hit the stock faster and harder than any reverse-split commentary.