Tesla shares jump as Musk confirms Robotaxi progress

Tesla shares rose about 4.6% to $480 after CEO Elon Musk confirmed progress in Robotaxi testing, including a video-verified Austin test with no occupants and a move toward driverless operation in select markets. Wedbush reiterated an Outperform rating with a $600 12-month target, forecasting volume Cybercab production around April–May 2026, rollouts in more than 30 US cities next year, and valuing the AI/autonomy opportunity at least $1 trillion (with a bull-case $2T–$3T market cap and an $800 12–18 month target), and said FSD penetration could surpass 50% over time. The news highlights Tesla’s strategic shift toward autonomous driving and robotics as the next growth chapter, though timing and scalability of a Robotaxi business remain points of investor debate.

Analysis

Tesla shares jumped about 4.6% to roughly $480 after CEO Elon Musk confirmed progress in Robotaxi testing, including a video-verified Austin test with no occupants and Musk’s statement “Testing is underway with no occupants in the car.” Wedbush reiterated an Outperform rating with a 12-month price target of $600 and described the development as the start of Tesla’s next phase focused on autonomous driving and robotics.

Wedbush projects volume Cybercab production around April–May 2026, rollouts in more than 30 US cities in 2026, and values the AI/autonomy opportunity at least $1 trillion, with a bull-case market-cap thesis of $2 trillion–$3 trillion and a bullish $800 target over 12–18 months. The analysts expect FSD penetration to rise materially over time and argue this could change Tesla’s financial model as the company shifts toward an AI-driven valuation.

The news matters because confirmed driverless testing and a credible production timeline would materially de-risk Wedbush’s upside case, but the article notes investors remain divided on how quickly the Robotaxi business will scale. Near-term returns therefore depend on delivery of concrete execution milestones (production ramp, city rollouts, measured FSD adoption), making timing and scalability the principal uncertainties for valuation upside.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider increasing selective exposure if you accept execution risk and a multi-quarter timeline, using Wedbush’s $600 base and $800 bull-case as scenario anchors, but cap position size to reflect high uncertainty
• Monitor specific catalysts—additional driverless testing evidence, an official Cybercab production start in April–May 2026, confirmations of city rollouts and rising FSD penetration—and treat those as add or take-profit triggers
• Implement risk management through position sizing, partial profit-taking on rallies, or hedges given divided investor views and uncertain scaling timelines