6-in-10 Americans disapprove of Trump's job performance, new poll says

A Washington Post-ABC News-Ipsos poll of 2,589 U.S. adults (Feb. 12-17, ±2 points) finds 60% disapprove of President Trump’s job performance (47% strong disapproval) versus 39% approval, with stark partisan splits (85% of Republicans approve; 94% of Democrats disapprove; 69% of independents disapprove). Issue-level ratings show especially weak marks on inflation (65% disapprove, 32% approve) and tariffs (64% disapprove, 34% approve), while trust on immigration and cost-of-living is closely contested; the poll precedes the State of the Union (Feb. 24) and early 2026 primaries (Mar. 3). For investors, the data underscore persistent political headwinds and policy uncertainty around inflation, trade and immigration but are unlikely by themselves to trigger major market moves.

Analysis

Market structure: A sustained 60% disapproval reading concentrated on inflation, tariffs and foreign policy increases the odds of continued protectionist rhetoric and targeted tariff actions. Winners would be domestic-materials and defense contractors (steelmakers, Nucor/NUE; defense LMT/RTX) that gain pricing power; losers include import-dependent retail, apparel and export-sensitive semiconductors that face margin compression. Across assets, higher tariff/inflation risk pushes real rates and term premium up (+10–50bp risk), supports USD and gold, and raises oil tail-risk from geopolitical spillovers.

Risk assessment: Tail events include tariff escalation causing 5–15% EBITDA hit in import-reliant names and a geopolitical shock spiking Brent +10–20%; social unrest or policy paralysis could widen equity risk premia by 200–400bp. Immediate window: State of the Union (Feb 24) and Mar 3 primaries; short-term (weeks–months) is when tariff proclamations or sectoral exemptions appear; long-term (quarters–years) is sustained reshoring changing capex profiles. Hidden dependencies: Fed reaction function (inflation prints) and corporate ability to pass costs to consumers are second-order drivers.

Trade implications: Tactical long on domestic industrials/materials and defense, short import-heavy retail/consumer discretionary and select semis with export exposure. Reduce long-duration fixed-income exposure if CPI surprises >0.4% mom or 10y >3.75%. Use 2–3 month option spreads to concentrate risk around SOTU and CPI/Fed calendar; size positions small (0.5–3% each) and scale with confirmed policy moves.

Contrarian angles: Consensus treats this as purely political noise; markets may underprice structural reshoring winners (automation, local steel capacity) and overprice immediate defense/commodity rallies. 2018 tariff cycle suggests most equity impacts were transient (3–12 months) but created durable winners in a narrow cohort—identify companies with >50% US-origin inputs. Watch for unintended consequences: sticky inflation forcing hawkish Fed, which would punish long-duration growth names more than cyclicals.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% long position in Nucor (NUE) and a 2% long in Lockheed Martin (LMT) as 3–9 month trades: justify by potential tariff-driven domestic steel uplift and defense spending; trim/exit if SOTU (Feb 24) contains explicit rollback language within 30 days or if company-specific guidance deteriorates by >10% consensus EBITDA.
• Initiate a 1.5–3% short position in XLY (Consumer Discretionary ETF) or 1–2% short in XRT (Retail ETF) for 3 months to capture margin risk from import cost pressure; cover if US consumer confidence rises >5 points or same-store-sales surprise +200bp vs consensus.
• Reduce long-duration bond exposure: trim TLT allocation by 25% and rotate into SHY/BIL by 25% if 10-year Treasury yield breaches 3.75% or month CPI >0.4%; reverse if 10y falls below 3.2% on two consecutive sessions.
• Use options to concentrate event risk: buy a 3-month call spread on LMT (size 0.5–1% portfolio risk; structure ATM+5% long / ATM+12% short) and buy a 2–3 month put spread on XLY (size 0.5–1%) to express asymmetric upside in defense and downside in import-heavy retail around SOTU and March CPI/primaries.