U.S. Office Leasing Remained Steady in the Second Quarter of 2026

U.S. office leasing stayed steady in Q2 2026, with tenants signing new leases for an estimated 115 million square feet. The figure is slightly below the 2015–19 quarterly average, but CoStar indicates the market is showing a sustained recovery while still constrained by underwriting/availability factors.

Analysis

The important signal here is not “office is back,” but that the downside spiral in office fundamentals is not worsening fast enough to force another round of aggressive mark-downs. That matters first for balance sheets: lenders, CMBS holders, and office REITs with near-term maturities can extend rather than crystallize losses, which tends to compress distress discounts before it improves operating cash flow. The second-order winners are the usual transaction-enablers — brokerage, appraisal, leasing, and data providers — because even a mediocre market keeps customers paying for market intelligence and deal workflow tools.

For CSGP specifically, this is a sentiment tailwind more than a direct earnings catalyst. The stock’s real sensitivity is to perceived durability of its marketplace/data franchise, so any stabilization in commercial real estate supports retention and pricing power, but the revenue inflection from office alone should be modest unless leasing turns into higher transaction volumes and better customer activity over the next 1-3 quarters. The market is likely to over-read steady leasing as a broad recovery; the more likely outcome is a lower but stable equilibrium that helps quality platforms, not a V-shaped rebound.

The contrarian risk is that office is bifurcating sharply by asset quality and geography, so headline stabilization can coexist with persistent distress in commodity stock. If rates stay high or sublease supply re-accelerates, the recovery narrative can roll over quickly, hurting office-sensitive REITs and leaving CSGP with little fundamental upside beyond defensive earnings quality. Over 6-18 months, the key question is whether occupier demand can outgrow hybrid-work leakage; if not, multiple expansion in the office complex should stay capped.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Stay flat CSGP for now; treat this as a watch item, not a fresh buy, until next-quarter bookings/renewal commentary shows a clear step-up in customer activity.
• If expressing the theme, prefer a relative-value long CBRE/JLL vs. short BXP/SLG basket over 1-3 months; the upside is transaction normalization, while the short leg still carries refinancing and occupancy risk.
• Use any rally in office REITs tied to this data as an exit opportunity rather than a chase; falsify the constructive view if leasing volume stalls again next quarter or cap rates resume widening.
• For CSGP longs, only add on pullbacks if management guides to improving commercial transaction growth; otherwise the data is supportive but not strong enough to justify multiple expansion.