RTH, VDC: Two ETFs Which Could Checkout Well After Walmart Q3 Earnings

Walmart will report Q3 results tomorrow with Street estimates at $0.61 EPS (up 5.2% YoY) and $177.14 billion in revenue (up 4.5% YoY). The piece recommends ETFs as a way to gain Walmart exposure, highlighting VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) where WMT is 9.48% of holdings (AUM $253.85M, 0.35% expense ratio, YTD +11%, TipRanks Strong Buy consensus price $299.15, ~22.7% implied upside) and Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) where WMT is 14.26% (AUM $7.19B, 0.09% expense ratio, YTD +0.58%, TipRanks Moderate Buy consensus price $243.07, ~17.0% implied upside). It concludes that ETFs offer a liquid, lower-risk way to participate in Walmart’s performance relative to owning the stock directly.

Analysis

Walmart is scheduled to report Q3 results tomorrow with Wall Street forecasting $0.61 EPS, a 5.2% year-over-year increase, and revenues of $177.14 billion, up 4.5% year-over-year. The provided sentiment outputs are mildly positive (0.15) with a modest market impact score (0.35), suggesting expectations are muted and the print is unlikely to trigger systemic market moves absent a material surprise.

The article highlights two ETF avenues for Walmart exposure. VanEck Retail ETF (RTH) holds 9.48% WMT, has $253.85 million AUM, a 0.35% expense ratio, is +11% YTD and carries a TipRanks Strong Buy consensus (21 Buys, 5 Holds) with a $299.15 price target implying ~22.7% upside. Vanguard Consumer Staples ETF (VDC) has 14.26% WMT weight, $7.19 billion AUM, a 0.09% expense ratio, is +0.58% YTD and holds a Moderate Buy consensus (58 Buys, 46 Holds, 2 Sells) with a $243.07 target implying ~17.0% upside.

Implications for positioning: consensus estimates imply modest growth, so upside from a positive surprise may be limited and a miss could pressure WMT and retail-focused ETFs. RTH offers more concentrated retail upside but higher idiosyncratic and sector volatility; VDC provides larger AUM, lower fees and more defensive, staples-oriented exposure that reduces single-stock risk relative to holding WMT directly.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider reducing direct WMT exposure or implementing short-term hedges (e.g., options or index hedges) ahead of the Q3 print to limit downside from an earnings miss
• If seeking upside exposure to retail momentum, allocate selectively to RTH given its higher YTD performance and Strong Buy consensus but limit sizing due to its smaller AUM and higher expense ratio
• If preferring defensive, lower-cost exposure to Walmart within a diversified basket, favor VDC because of its larger AUM, 0.09% expense ratio and staples orientation
• Plan to reassess positions after the earnings release and market reaction—prioritize moves if EPS or revenue deviates materially from the $0.61 and $177.14 billion consensus estimates