Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq inch higher as shutdown drags on

US equities edged higher, primarily driven by strong AI demand, exemplified by Nvidia's performance and Applied Digital's revenue beat, despite the ongoing government shutdown which delayed key economic data but showed signs of potential resolution. Haven assets like gold and silver gained, while investors prepared for a potentially softer Q3 earnings season, with tariffs expected to impact revenue for companies like Levi Strauss. Concurrently, Qualcomm faced an antitrust probe in China, and US Treasury yields declined amid the data void.

Analysis

US equities posted modest gains, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite up over 0.1%, primarily driven by sustained optimism in AI demand. Nvidia's continued strength and Applied Digital's 30% stock surge following a quarterly revenue beat underscore this sector's resilience. This positive sentiment helped offset broader market uncertainty stemming from the ongoing government shutdown.

The protracted government shutdown, now in its tenth day, continues to delay critical economic data releases, including the Consumer Price Index, contributing to market uncertainty. This data void is influencing investor expectations for Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, with Treasury yields declining by 5 basis points for the 10-year. However, emerging signs of a potential resolution to the gridlock offer a glimmer of hope for data flow normalization.

Ahead of the Q3 earnings season, which begins next week with JPMorgan and Citigroup, expectations are for softer performance, particularly due to the anticipated impact of tariffs on revenue. This was exemplified by Levi Strauss's nearly 7% premarket decline after its profit outlook fell short of Wall Street expectations. Conversely, Delta Airlines demonstrated strength, with its "premium play" strategy leading to a 0.5% premarket stock rise.

Geopolitical and regulatory risks remain pertinent, as evidenced by Qualcomm's over 3% premarket stock drop following China's antitrust probe into its Autotalks acquisition. The simultaneous rise in safe-haven assets like gold (above $4,000/ounce) and silver further highlights underlying market caution despite the day's equity gains.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor AI sector for continued strength, as robust performance from Nvidia and Applied Digital suggests ongoing investor interest despite broader market uncertainty.
• Scrutinize upcoming Q3 earnings reports for specific commentary and quantifiable impacts of tariffs on revenue, particularly for companies with significant international exposure like Levi Strauss.
• Watch for a resolution to the government shutdown and the subsequent release of delayed economic data, especially the CPI, as this will be crucial for recalibrating Fed rate cut expectations and bond market positioning.
• Evaluate geopolitical and regulatory risks within technology holdings, as highlighted by the Qualcomm antitrust probe, which could impact global supply chains and market access.