These 2 Retail and Wholesale Stocks Could Beat Earnings: Why They Should Be on Your Radar

Zacks highlights Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) as retail stocks with positive Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction), suggesting a potential for earnings beats. CBRL, with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) and an ESP of +17.65%, reports earnings on June 5, 2025, while ULTA, also a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), has an ESP of +0.17% before its September 4, 2025, earnings release; Zacks' backtesting indicates that stocks with a positive ESP and a Zacks Rank #3 or better have a 70% chance of a positive earnings surprise.

Analysis

The Zacks Earnings ESP (Expected Surprise Prediction) model, which identifies potential earnings surprises by comparing the Most Accurate Estimate to the Zacks Consensus Estimate, suggests upcoming positive catalysts for Cracker Barrel Old Country Store (CBRL) and Ulta Beauty (ULTA). Historically, a positive Earnings ESP combined with a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold) or stronger has resulted in a positive earnings surprise 70% of the time, yielding average annual returns of approximately 28% in a 10-year backtest. Cracker Barrel, holding a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), demonstrates a significant Earnings ESP of +17.65%, with its Most Accurate Estimate at $0.20 per share against a consensus of $0.17, ahead of its June 5, 2025, earnings release. This substantial ESP, coupled with a ticker-specific positive sentiment (0.7), points to a heightened probability of an earnings beat. Ulta Beauty, also a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), shows a more modest positive Earnings ESP of +0.17%, based on its Most Accurate Estimate and Consensus Estimate both at $4.90 per share for its earnings report due on September 4, 2025; its ticker sentiment is neutral to slightly positive (0.5). Both companies operate within the Retail and Wholesale sector, and their positive ESP metrics, albeit of different magnitudes, indicate a potential for outperforming earnings expectations.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors may consider Cracker Barrel (CBRL) for a potential short-term trade leading into its June 5, 2025, earnings, given its substantial +17.65% Earnings ESP and historical data suggesting a high likelihood of an earnings beat.
• For Ulta Beauty (ULTA), while the +0.17% Earnings ESP is positive, its marginal nature warrants closer observation of analyst revisions and sector trends leading up to its September 4, 2025, earnings report before making significant allocation decisions.
• Given both stocks carry a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), they are expected to perform in-line with the market, but a positive earnings surprise, as suggested by the ESP, could serve as a catalyst for short-term outperformance; thus, monitoring these earnings events is crucial.