Here's a Much Better Nasdaq-100 Stock to Buy Right Now Than SpaceX

SpaceX is set to be added to the Nasdaq-100 after the July 6 close, which could boost near-term demand via index rebalancing. Separately, Microsoft posted Q3 FY2026 non-GAAP EPS of $4.27 on $82.89B revenue (vs. $4.06 EPS and $81.39B sales estimates), with Azure/other cloud revenue up 40% y/y, but the stock is still down about 28% from its lifetime high. The article frames Microsoft as a long-term buy at ~20x expected earnings despite AI-driven competitive risk.

Analysis

The main mechanism here is not fundamental value creation, but forced flow. SPCX likely sees a short, mechanical bid into the rebalance, followed by weaker marginal demand once passive funds finish buying; that creates a classic “buy rumor, sell close” setup over days, not months. If borrow is tight or float is effectively constrained, the squeeze can extend, but the expected edge is mostly in timing rather than outright direction.

For MSFT, the better lens is relative scarcity of durable earnings growth at a still-reasonable multiple versus the rest of large-cap software. The market is implicitly discounting AI disruption risk faster than the actual operating data is deteriorating, which creates a window for long-horizon capital to accumulate on drawdowns; the key monthly catalyst is Azure and commercial RPO, not the headline multiple. If cloud growth re-accelerates or margin pressure stays contained, the stock can rerate without needing a new product cycle.

Second-order effects: index inclusions like this can pull attention away from quality compounders that are already liquid and self-funding, which is why MSFT can screen as “boring” even when it offers better risk-adjusted upside. On the contrarian side, the crowded view may be that the rebalance is an easy arb—those trades often fail when everyone is looking at the same calendar event, especially if the stock is already being accumulated ahead of the effective date. The falsifier for the MSFT long is simple: Azure growth rolling materially below the high-30s or operating margin compression from AI capex that persists for two quarters.

Key Decisions for Investors

• SPCX: avoid chasing after the July 6 close; if already long, trim into strength over the first 1-3 trading sessions post-inclusion as passive demand normalizes. Risk/reward favors timing the flow, not owning the post-event hangover.
• MSFT: accumulate on 5-10% pullbacks over the next 1-3 months; this is a quality compounder trade with a 12-18 month horizon, where the upside comes from multiple stability plus earnings compounding rather than a single catalyst.
• If borrow/liquidity are workable, pair long MSFT vs. short QQQ for the next quarter to isolate single-name quality versus index beta; this works best if AI enthusiasm broadens but leader stock selection remains disciplined.
• Set an alert on MSFT earnings: if Azure growth slips materially below the current trend or margin guidance tightens for two consecutive quarters, de-risk the long; that would invalidate the “AI disruption is over-discounted” thesis.
• Treat NDAQ as a small indirect beneficiary only if index-related volumes spike; do not size it as a core trade unless data shows a sustained uplift in options turnover and ETF creation activity.