Greggs Q3 Sales Up 6.1%; FY Outcome Guidance Unchanged

Greggs reported Q3 2025 sales growth of 6.1%, with like-for-like sales in company-managed shops rising 1.5%, contributing to a 6.7% year-to-date total sales increase. Despite a weather-impacted July, trading improved in August and September, leading the company to reaffirm its full-year outcome expectations. This demonstrates operational resilience and consistent management guidance, further supported by strategic infrastructure investments with new distribution centers planned for 2026 and 2027.

Analysis

Greggs has reported a moderation in its growth trajectory during the third quarter of 2025, with total sales increasing 6.1% and like-for-like (LFL) sales in company-managed shops growing by a more subdued 1.5%. This slowdown is attributed directly to unusually high temperatures in July, which temporarily impacted performance before trading improved in August and September. Despite this quarterly headwind, the year-to-date performance remains stronger, with total sales up 6.7% and LFL sales at 2.2%. Crucially, the Board's decision to maintain its full-year guidance signals that the Q3 performance was within an expected range and that management is confident in its ability to meet annual targets. This stability is further supported by the confirmation that strategic infrastructure projects, namely two new distribution centres, are progressing on schedule for 2026 and 2027, underpinning the company's long-term growth and supply chain efficiency plans.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should view the reaffirmed full-year guidance as the key takeaway, suggesting the Q3 sales slowdown was a transient, weather-related event rather than a sign of deteriorating fundamentals.
• Monitor upcoming trading updates for a sustained recovery in like-for-like sales growth into the fourth quarter, as the 1.5% figure from Q3 represents a notable deceleration that needs to reverse to support the current outlook.
• Consider that the on-track development of new distribution centers for 2026 and 2027 provides positive long-term visibility on the company's ability to execute its expansion strategy and enhance operational efficiency.