SCM resigned. Now what?

The immediate market read-through is not the resignation itself but the sequencing risk it creates: a prolonged vacancy reduces constituent service pressure while giving the governor and legislature a cleaner runway to redraw the seat before voters ever get a chance to price in a normal special election. That makes the real catalyst a map-drawing process, not the eventual replacement race. The most important second-order effect is donor capital misallocation — money that would have been spent defending or flipping a short-cycle special now gets held back until the final contours of the district are known, suppressing near-term political ad demand and consultant spend.

The ICE angle is the cleanest tradable regulatory signal in the package. Local tightening of jail access is incrementally negative for detention utilization, but the larger risk is contagion: if more counties follow, it creates friction around bed counts and length-of-stay economics without changing the state-level mandate structure. That is a slow-burn headwind rather than a cliff event, and the market usually underestimates how many small municipal decisions can compound into lower utilization across the ecosystem over 6-18 months.

The AI/shooting probe is a different kind of risk: it is not about near-term revenue at OpenAI, but about precedent. A criminal framing, even if eventually narrowed, raises the probability of stricter product- and usage-level controls, more litigation discovery, and higher compliance overhead across the entire frontier-model cohort. The first-order bear case is overstated; the second-order risk is that enterprise buyers, schools, and public-sector customers slow procurement while legal teams reassess indemnity and safety language.

Contrarian view: the market may be overestimating the immediacy of a political catalyst in Florida while underpricing the durability of the AI liability narrative. The district redrawing process could end up protecting incumbents or simply changing the partisan composition without generating a clean tradeable shock. By contrast, the OpenAI probe can metastasize into a broader regulatory template, which is the kind of slow, structural repricing that tends to matter more for public comps than the headline itself.