The Artificial Intelligence (AI) Stock Everyone's Ignoring That Could Soar in 2026

Samsara is highlighted as an under-the-radar AI stock with steadily improving fundamentals, including 29.57% revenue growth in fiscal 2026 and 30% ARR growth. The company’s net margin improved from -30.59% in 2024 to -12.4% in 2025 and now sits at -0.56%, putting it close to profitability. The article argues that a move into net profit could trigger a share-price pop, though the piece is mainly commentary rather than new company-reported news.

Analysis

The market is still valuing IOT like a good story stock, not a near-breakeven compounding software vendor with hardware-enabled data capture. The second-order implication is that the company’s path to profitability is likely a multiple-expansion event rather than an earnings-line event: once GAAP profitability is printed, the buyer base broadens from “growth-at-any-price” to quality growth and profitability screens, which can mechanically re-rate the shares over a short window.

What the consensus is missing is that Samsara’s economics are unusually legible for an AI name. Because ROI is tied to fleet utilization, maintenance, and claims reduction, procurement friction should fall faster than in vague AI workflow tools; that supports a longer sales cycle with lower churn and more upsell once embedded. That creates a wedge versus other AI infrastructure/application names where spend can be discretionary and harder to defend in a budget review.

The risk is that the “profitable this quarter” setup can become crowded and disappoint on timing rather than thesis. If operating leverage is offset by continued sales and R&D intensity, the stock may stall even with strong ARR growth; the key tell is whether gross margin stability translates into sustained opex discipline over the next 1-2 quarters. In that case, the selloff would likely be sentiment-driven, not fundamental, and could reverse quickly on any beat-plus-raise.

From a competitive angle, the beneficiaries are likely adjacent telematics, dashcam, and fleet-software vendors facing a tougher benchmark on measurable ROI and AI-enabled safety outcomes. Over 6-18 months, Samsara can also pull budget from legacy fleet management and insurance-loss mitigation spend, which is a more durable source of demand than pure software substitution. The setup is therefore better as a quality-growth rerating trade than a single-quarter earnings trade.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Go long IOT into the next earnings print; favor a 1-3 month horizon and size for a re-rating if GAAP breakeven is confirmed, with downside capped by already-low expectations and upside from a profitability inflection.
• Buy IOT call spreads expiring 1-2 quarters out to express the thesis that the market will reward first-profitability more than incremental ARR growth; this offers defined risk if timing slips by one quarter.
• Pair long IOT vs short a basket of less-monetizable AI application names or legacy fleet/telematics exposure over 3-6 months; the spread should favor businesses with explicit ROI and lower churn.
• If IOT gaps higher on earnings but misses profitability guidance by even a small margin, fade the move rather than chase; the stock is vulnerable to a 'good growth, not yet enough' reaction that can unwind 10-15% quickly.
• Use a staggered entry rather than full size immediately: 50% pre-earnings, 50% only if management demonstrates operating leverage, because the trade is primarily about a validation event, not valuation support alone.