The IPO Market Is Heating Up Again. These Financial Stocks Stand to Win.

The article argues that anticipated IPOs from SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could boost investment banks such as Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley through underwriting fees and related IPO services. It also highlights a likely trading-volume tailwind for brokers like Interactive Brokers and Robinhood if first-day investor demand is strong. The piece is largely a thematic bullish note on IPO activity rather than a company-specific fundamental update.

Analysis

The real trade here is not the IPO names themselves but the monetization layer around them. In a high-excitement listing cycle, GS and MS earn on underwriting, advisory, and secondary distribution, but the more convex beneficiary is IBKR because a hot IPO tape can compound into higher turnover for months after listing as retail and pros churn around lockups, analyst initiations, and post-deal volatility. That makes this a flow story with a longer tail than the headline IPO date: the first 1-3 months matter for underwriting fees, while the next 3-12 months matter for trading velocity and margin balances.

The market is likely underestimating how asymmetric the broker benefit can be if one or two of these IPOs become “own it or trade it” names. For IBKR and HOOD, the key second-order effect is not just new accounts; it is a step-up in active accounts and options activity that lifts monetization per user without requiring much incremental CAC. By contrast, GS/MS get the cleanest P&L uplift only if the pipeline broadens beyond a handful of marquee names; if the IPO window is mostly narrative and not execution, the banks see more headline beta than fee beta.

The contrarian risk is that consensus is conflating excitement with durable issuance. If rates back up, secondary-market volatility spikes, or one of the high-profile listings prices poorly, the window can shut quickly and underwriting economics revert to lumpy, low-visibility deal flow. In that scenario, IBKR can still hold up better than GS/MS because trading intensity can persist even when IPO volume fades, whereas banks need the primary market to stay open to keep the Street model working.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Go long IBKR vs short GS in a 3-6 month pair trade: the broker has more persistent upside from retail churn and post-IPO trading, while GS is more exposed to whether the IPO pipeline actually closes.
• Add MS on weakness for a 1-2 quarter trade: better operating leverage to a reopened capital-markets window than the market typically prices before fee seasonality shows up.
• Use HOOD calls, 2-4 month tenor, financed partly by selling upside in GS: if IPO enthusiasm spills into retail trading, HOOD has the sharpest convexity to options volume and engagement.
• If the first marquee IPO prints poorly, fade the whole basket and rotate out of GS/MS quickly: the downside is a fast reset in expected deal activity over the next 6-12 months.
• Watch IBKR volume and options activity as the highest-signal KPI; if those inflect for 2-3 consecutive weeks, add to the broker exposure because the earnings revision cycle should follow.