Gold has crushed stocks, bonds and even bitcoin in 2025. This banking giant just got more bullish.

UBS Global Wealth Management has raised its gold price targets, now forecasting the metal to reach $3,600 by March 2026 and $3,700 by June/September 2026, driven by its 28% year-to-date outperformance against major assets. The firm's heightened bullishness is predicated on anticipated lower real U.S. yields from potential Fed rate cuts, ongoing macro-related risks, de-dollarization trends, and robust central bank and ETF demand, which is projected to boost global gold demand to a 14-year high of 4,760 metric tons in 2025.

Analysis

UBS Global Wealth Management has materially upgraded its forecast for gold, raising price targets to $3,600 per ounce by March 2026 and $3,700 by June 2026, citing a convergence of supportive factors. This bullish revision follows gold's 28% year-to-date surge, a performance that has significantly outpaced major stock indices, bonds, and bitcoin. The core of the investment thesis is the anticipation of lower real U.S. yields, stemming from a combination of persistent inflation and below-trend economic growth, which diminishes the opportunity cost of holding the non-yielding asset. This macroeconomic outlook is compounded by structural tailwinds, including de-dollarization trends fueling central bank purchases, concerns over U.S. fiscal sustainability, and questions surrounding Federal Reserve independence. Demand indicators are strong, with World Gold Council data showing the largest first-half ETF inflows since 2010 and UBS forecasting total global demand to hit a 14-year high of 4,760 metric tons in 2025. The primary risk identified is a scenario where the Fed is forced to raise interest rates, while a counter-view from Topdown Charts suggests a potential rotation into undervalued industrial metals could temper gold's rally.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Given the strong institutional support from UBS and gold's significant outperformance, investors may consider the new 2026 price targets of $3,600-$3,700 as a basis for maintaining or establishing long positions.
• Investors should closely monitor signals from the Federal Reserve, particularly at the upcoming Jackson Hole symposium, as confirmation of a dovish pivot would strongly support the bull case, whereas a hawkish stance presents the main risk.
• Pay attention to fund flows and relative performance against other commodities, as a rotation into industrial metals could signal a near-term consolidation or peak for gold.
• The thesis hinges on falling real yields; therefore, watch for U.S. macroeconomic data points, such as inflation and jobs numbers, that deviate from the expected path of sticky inflation and slowing growth.