Famine conditions confirmed in Sudan’s Al Fasher and Kadugli but hunger and malnutrition ease where conflict subsides

Famine conditions have been confirmed in Al Fasher and Kadugli, Sudan, due to ongoing conflict and restricted humanitarian access, leading to surpassed famine thresholds and alarmingly high malnutrition rates. While some regions like Khartoum show marginal improvements in food security as conflict eases and markets recover, 21.2 million people (45% of the population) still face acute food insecurity, with a high risk of famine in 20 additional areas. International agencies are urgently calling for an end to hostilities, unimpeded humanitarian access, and increased funding to prevent a wider catastrophe, underscoring the severe economic disruption, collapsed markets, and soaring prices in conflict-affected zones.

Analysis

Famine conditions have been officially confirmed in Sudan's Al Fasher and Kadugli, where food consumption, acute malnutrition, and mortality thresholds have been surpassed, according to the IPC Special Snapshot. Global Acute Malnutrition (GAM) rates are alarmingly high, ranging from 38% to 75% in Al Fasher and 29% in Kadugli, driven by active conflict and severely restricted humanitarian access. An estimated 21.2 million people, or 45% of the population, still face high levels of acute food insecurity (IPC3+).

While some regions like Khartoum, Al Jazirah, and Sennar have seen marginal improvements since May 2025 due to eased conflict and market recovery, these gains are highly localized and fragile. The Famine Review Committee projects a high risk of famine in 20 additional areas across Greater Darfur and Kordofan, with hunger expected to worsen from February 2026 as food stocks deplete. The wider crisis has shattered the economy, damaged infrastructure, and collapsed vital services, exacerbated by disease outbreaks.

The primary drivers of this acute food insecurity are identified as conflict, displacement, and blocked humanitarian access, leading to collapsed markets and soaring staple good prices. International agencies urgently call for an end to hostilities, safe and unimpeded humanitarian access, and increased funding to prevent further loss of life. Humanitarian efforts are frequently targeted, and aid convoys face delays and security threats, hindering critical assistance.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Monitor geopolitical developments in Sudan closely, as sustained conflict directly impacts regional stability and humanitarian access, influencing commodity prices and supply chains.
• Evaluate potential indirect impacts on regional investments, particularly in sectors reliant on stable trade routes or agricultural output from neighboring areas, given the widespread economic disruption.
• Consider the long-term implications of humanitarian crises on regional demographics and economic recovery, which could affect future market opportunities and risks.