SpaceX Stock: 3 Reasons I Am Not Buying the Dip

SpaceX shares are already down 20% since the IPO price and 52% from the all-time high after a Q2 earnings update that disappointed the market. Despite revenue rising 92% YoY to $7.8B and net loss cutting to $541M (from ~$1.0B), the article flags very heavy AI-related capex of $15.8B in Q2 (up more than 2x QoQ) and an all-stock $60B acquisition of Cursor that will dilute shareholders. With P/S at 73.4 versus a “reasonable” range below 2 and an Aug. 6 lockup expiration looming, the author expects further downside and highlights that returns on AI spending are unlikely over the next year.

Analysis

The market is likely extrapolating a financing story, not a fundamentals story. A high-multiple company issuing stock into a large AI capex program creates a reflexive loop: every dollar of “strategic investment” now carries an equity dilution cost, so the burden of proof shifts to near-term monetization. That is bad for SPCX, but also a warning shot for any pre-profit AI narrative that relies on future optionality instead of visible cash conversion.

The immediate overhang is supply, not demand. A first lockup window plus an all-stock acquisition raises the odds of incremental float hitting a market that already knows the story is crowded; that typically suppresses upside for 1-3 months even if the business is improving underneath. The more important catalyst is the next two quarters: if management cannot narrow losses while continuing to spend aggressively, the market will start haircutting the long-dated AI option value rather than paying for it.

Contrarian view: the consensus may be underweighting strategic scarcity value. If AI spend is truly building a differentiated network or launch/cost advantage, the current drawdown could be a classic “capex misread” where near-term ROIC looks awful but the asset base compounds for years. What would falsify the bearish thesis is any evidence that AI spend is decelerating, post-lockup insider supply is minimal, or operating leverage arrives faster than expected; absent that, the stock likely remains a financing overhang rather than a fundamentals story.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short SPCX on any post-lockup strength; use a 1-3 month horizon and cover if the stock reclaims its IPO price on heavy volume for multiple sessions.
• If borrow is expensive, buy SPCX put spreads instead of outright puts to express downside from dilution and lockup supply while capping premium decay.
• Pair trade: long NVDA / short SPCX for a relative-value expression that AI capex demand accrues to the picks-and-shovels supplier rather than the cash-burning adopter; reassess if AI spending broadens across the sector and bid-ask on AI hardware tightens.
• Set an alert for the next quarterly update: any capex reduction or explicit ROIC framework would invalidate the near-term short thesis; if losses widen again despite revenue growth, add to bearish exposure.
• Avoid chasing the dip in space/satellite thematic baskets until the secondary supply clears; the better entry for longs is likely after the first lockup-driven selloff flushes through.