RBC’s Jeffrey Schok knows that as gold soars, picking the right stocks becomes even more important

RBC Global Precious Metals Fund, valued at $1.7 billion, remains constructive on gold over the medium to long term and sees US$6,000/oz in 2027 as realistic, even though prices may stay range-bound near term. The manager favors mid-tier producers and names K92 Mining as undervalued versus peers, citing its seven-million-ounce ore body and an approaching free-cash-flow inflection from mine expansion. The fund is also bullish on gold equities and silver, though it notes higher real rates and a stronger U.S. dollar as key risks.

Analysis

The setup is still favorable for the better-quality gold complex, but the market is likely underpricing dispersion. If real rates stay sticky while central-bank buying merely normalizes rather than accelerates, bullion can tread water; in that scenario, balance-sheet strength, self-funded growth, and mine expansion optionality should outperform pure leverage to spot. That argues for favoring names with visible free-cash-flow inflection over high-beta producers that need a sustained metal move to de-risk their stories.

The bigger second-order winner is M&A optionality in the mid-tier segment. Large producers are still incentivized to buy ounces rather than build them, and the market tends to re-rate assets once they get close to free-cash-flow inflection, even before the cash actually lands. That creates a window where developers and mid-tiers with expanding throughput can get multiple expansion without needing a fresh all-time high in gold.

K92 stands out as the cleanest catalyst-driven expression: the market is likely discounting jurisdictional friction too heavily relative to the quality of the ore body and the impending step-up in cash generation. If the expansion executes, the stock can re-rate on both resource quality and durability of earnings, which is much harder to short than a commodity-beta gold name. By contrast, royalty exposure looks relatively less attractive in a fast-rising metal tape because the torque to spot is muted and capital tends to chase operating leverage first.

Contrarian risk: gold’s safe-haven bid can unwind sharply in a broad risk-off event if investors need liquidity, even when the macro narrative remains intact. That means the trade is not ‘long gold at any price,’ but rather long selective miners with catalysts and short-duration upside, while being careful on crowded defensive positioning. Silver remains the more fragile leg of the trade because industrial substitution and demand elasticity can cap upside once the speculative squeeze fades.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Long KNT.TO on 1-3 month horizon into the free-cash-flow inflection; target a 20-30% re-rating if expansion execution remains on track, with downside controlled by liquidity/timing risk rather than ore-body quality.
• Overweight AEM and KGC versus WPM on a 3-6 month basis; prefer operating leverage and capital return visibility over royalty exposure, which should lag in a stable-to-rising gold tape.
• Pair trade: long KNT.TO / short WPM as a relative-value expression of mid-tier re-rating versus lower-torque royalty exposure; risk/reward improves if gold stays range-bound but miners re-rate on catalysts.
• Long PAAS and SKE only on pullbacks; these are higher-beta silver names with upside if gold resumes higher, but keep tight risk limits because silver’s industrial component can compress valuation quickly.
• If gold weakens on a dollar/rates spike, hedge with a short basket of high-beta gold equities rather than bullion; miner multiples should compress faster than the metal if the market starts pricing a multi-month pause in central-bank demand.