NuScale Power Stock Is Down 75% in 12 Months. Here's Why.

NuScale Power shares are down ~75% as investors lose confidence after the company’s certified SMR design has not translated into any commercial reactor deployments. The sell-off is tied to waning AI/data-center power enthusiasm and slower-than-expected emergence of SMR demand, with projects (Romania and TVA) still pre-development and unlikely to be material until the 2030s. Overall, the piece frames NuScale as a long-dated, high-risk early-stage developer rather than a near-term revenue story.

Analysis

SMR is still a narrative asset, not an operating business, so the key variable is not certification but the market’s willingness to finance a multi-year commercialization gap. As AI-power enthusiasm cools, the stock loses its main valuation bridge: investors are rotating from distant optionality toward assets that can convert demand into revenue within 12-24 months. That should keep SMR vulnerable to multiple compression even if the long-term thesis remains intact.

The second-order winner is BE, because customers searching for incremental firm power are likely to prefer technologies that can be deployed, financed, and contracted before the next data-center capacity crunch. For SMR, the real risk is financing dilution: every quarter without a binding commercial deployment increases the probability that capital needs, not technical progress, drive the chart. Over 6-18 months, the question is whether the company can avoid becoming a perpetual pre-revenue story in a higher-rate environment.

Contrarian view: the consensus may be underestimating how valuable first-mover regulatory credibility can become once utilities and hyperscalers are forced to buy firm power at scale. But that payoff is still years away, and the near-term setup is asymmetric against a stock priced on future deployments that have not yet converted into cash flow. A reversal likely needs a signed, financeable contract or a credible revenue milestone, not more commentary about TAM.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Short SMR on rallies; use 1-3 month horizon and define risk with a stop if the stock closes back above the post-selloff resistance zone. Thesis breaks if SMR announces a binding commercial deployment or project financing on economics that is clearly non-dilutive.
• Pair trade: long BE / short SMR for 1-3 months. BE has nearer-term monetization from AI power procurement, while SMR remains a long-duration financing story. Risk/reward improves if power-demand headlines continue to favor deployable solutions over pre-revenue reactors.
• If borrow is tight or volatility is elevated, express the same view with SMR put spreads 3-6 months out rather than outright short equity. This limits carry risk if the stock stays range-bound.
• Do not buy SMR until there is evidence of revenue conversion: signed EPC, final investment decision, or a funded customer contract. Treat any move higher without those catalysts as sentiment-driven and fadeable.