Pre-Market Earnings Report for February 13, 2026 : ENB, TRP, CCJ, MGA, MRNA, CIGI, ESNT, ATMU, SXT, AAP, NWG, WEN

Several North American companies are slated to report pre-market for the quarter ending December 31, 2025, with notable consensus EPS forecasts including Enbridge $0.60 (+13.21% YoY, prior-quarter miss), TC Energy $0.65 (-13.33% YoY), Moderna -$2.60 (-4.0% YoY, but with a history of quarterly beats), Advance Auto Parts $0.41 (+134.75% YoY), Colliers $2.24 (+19.79% YoY) and Magna $1.81 (+7.10% YoY). Zacks P/E comparisons are flagged for several names (e.g., ENB 24.09 vs industry 20.30; MRNA -5.19 vs industry -8.00), providing context for relative valuation ahead of earnings that could drive stock-specific moves but are unlikely to shift broader markets.

Analysis

Market structure: Q4 consensus shows clear short-term winners in cyclical/commodity-exposed names (AAP +134.8% EPS growth estimate, CCJ +7.7%) and weakness in traditional energy/financials (TRP EPS -13.3%, NWG -2.7%). AAP’s outsized EPS swing implies inventory/consumer resilience and gives it pricing power vs peers; CCJ’s positive bias signals continued tightness in uranium supply-demand that would lift spot-sensitive juniors and suppliers. Pipeline names (TRP) face volume/price compression risk which transfers margin to integrated producers or storage players.

Risk assessment: Tail risks include a regulatory shock to Canadian pipelines or a >25% unwind in uranium spot within 3 months that would knock CCJ down >30% given its 119x P/E; UK bank stress or a sudden Fed pivot could reprice NWG and REIT-like CIGI within days. Immediate impacts will concentrate around 48–72 hour post-earnings volatility; medium-term (1–6 months) outcomes depend on commodity moves and FX (CAD weakness amplifies Canadian exporters' USD earnings). Hidden dependencies: FX, inventory draws, and rate-driven capex cutbacks are second-order drivers for earnings revisions.

Trade implications: Favor selective exposure to commodity/recovery names and hedged short exposure to pipeline/bank risk. Target size: tactical 2–3% long CCJ (3–6 months) and 1–2% long AAP via defined-risk call spreads into earnings; open a small 0.5–1% 3-month put spread on TRP to express downside. Use debit call spreads on AAP/CCJ to limit IV crush, and buy put spreads for TRP/NWG; take profits on rallies of +20–30% and stop-loss at -12–15%.

Contrarian angles: Consensus may underprice sustained uranium tightness from primary mine underinvestment — favor CCJ only if you size for >30% volatility. Conversely, AAP’s growth is largely priced (PE ~33); a single-quarter miss could trigger outsized multiple contraction. Historical parallel: commodity-driven rallies (2006–07 uranium) reversed quickly when secondary supplies returned — always size for mean reversion and hedge with options.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Establish a 2–3% portfolio long position in Cameco (CCJ) with a 3–6 month horizon using a debit call spread to limit downside; target +25% take-profit on a strong beat/uranium spot rally, hard stop-loss at -15% or if spot uranium falls >20% within 60 days.
• Initiate a 1–2% tactical position in Advance Auto Parts (AAP) ahead of Q4 via a 6–8 week near-the-money call debit spread (caps cost/IV risk); trim to half position on a +15–20% move or close fully on a miss that prints EPS < $0.30 (consensus $0.41 indicates upside risk).
• Open a small hedge: buy a 3-month put spread equal to 0.5–1% portfolio exposure on TC Energy (TRP) to protect against a >10% downside post-earnings; structure as 10%/15% OTM put spread to limit premium while capturing tail downside from regulatory or winter-margin shocks.
• Reallocate 2% from pipeline/UK bank exposure (TRP/NWG) into real estate/insurance defensive growth: 1% into Colliers (CIGI) and 1% into Essent (ESNT) with a 6–12 month hold to capture earnings/dividend resilience; review after next quarter and exit if REIT/insurance net yields compress by >50 bps.