Why Marathon Petroleum (MPC) is a Top Momentum Stock for the Long-Term

Marathon Petroleum (MPC), a leading independent refiner and the largest U.S. refiner by capacity, is positioned as a top momentum stock. Despite holding a Zacks Rank #3 (Hold), MPC boasts a strong Momentum Style Score of A and a VGM Score of A. The company's shares have increased 1.8% over the past four weeks, supported by seven analysts raising fiscal 2025 earnings estimates, which lifted the consensus to $10.01 per share, a $2.49 increase. This positive sentiment is further underscored by MPC's impressive average earnings surprise of +340.3%, making it a notable consideration for investors.

Analysis

Marathon Petroleum (MPC) stands out as a leading independent refiner, transporter, and marketer of petroleum products, solidifying its position as the largest U.S. refiner by market capitalization and capacity following its 2018 acquisition of Andeavor. Despite holding a Zacks Rank of #3 (Hold), the company demonstrates robust underlying strength, evidenced by a top-tier VGM Score of A and a Momentum Style Score of A, indicating favorable value, growth, and momentum characteristics. This combination suggests a strong profile for investors seeking specific factor exposures.

MPC's shares have exhibited positive price action, increasing by 1.8% over the past four weeks, reflecting growing investor confidence. This momentum is further bolstered by significant analyst upgrades, with seven analysts revising their fiscal 2025 earnings estimates higher in the last 60 days. Consequently, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for fiscal 2025 has seen a substantial increase of $2.49, reaching $10.01 per share, signaling an improved earnings outlook.

The company's operational strength is underscored by an impressive average earnings surprise of +340.3%, indicating a consistent ability to exceed market expectations. This historical outperformance, combined with the recent upward trajectory in analyst estimates and strong Style Scores, positions MPC as a compelling candidate within the Oils-Energy sector, particularly for investors prioritizing momentum and fundamental strength.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Investors should closely monitor Marathon Petroleum (MPC) given its strong Momentum and VGM Style Scores, despite a Zacks #3 (Hold) rank, as these indicators suggest potential for outperformance.
• Evaluate the sustainability of the recent upward revisions in fiscal 2025 earnings estimates and the company's continued ability to deliver significant earnings surprises.
• Consider MPC for inclusion in portfolios seeking exposure to the Oils-Energy sector with strong momentum characteristics, especially given its leading market position and positive analyst sentiment.