Pfizer Is Still Struggling to Replace Its COVID Revenue. Here's What We Could See From the Pharmaceutical Giant in 2026.

Pfizer faces a shrinking COVID-vaccine franchise as U.S. regulators tighten healthy-person vaccination guidance, so management is banking on new product-led growth: an mRNA influenza vaccine that showed superior results in a Phase 3 trial and may advance toward regulatory submission next year, PF-4404 — a dual-mechanism oncology candidate with plans for multiple new trials and up to ~10 targeted indications by end of next year — and MET-097i, an anti-obesity asset with promising Phase 2 data and potential once‑monthly dosing that could enter Phase 3 in 2026. Near-term revenue pressure is likely — Xeljanz faces loss of exclusivity and vaccine sales have declined — with 9M 2025 revenue down ~2% to ~$45 billion while EPS rose 3% to $2.56; cost cuts and a three-year tariff exemption may support margins. At 8.7x forward earnings versus a healthcare average of 18.3 and a 6.6% forward yield, the stock appears value-oriented, but upside depends on successful clinical readouts and regulatory approvals.

Analysis

Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine franchise that helped the company surpass $100 billion in annual sales has contracted meaningfully as U.S. regulators tighten vaccination guidance for healthy individuals, and the article warns this niche could shrink further next year. Management is pivoting to new product-led growth: an mRNA influenza candidate produced significantly fewer flu-like illnesses than a market leader in a Phase 3 trial and is likely to advance toward regulatory submission next year.

PF-4404, a dual-mechanism oncology candidate, is positioned as a major pipeline priority with seven new trials planned soon and an ambition to target roughly 10 indications by the end of next year; investors should expect regular clinical updates. MET-097i, acquired via Metsera, completed two Phase 2 studies showing competitive weight loss, favorable tolerability and potential once-monthly dosing, with a Phase 3 start possible in 2026.

Near-term financials show pressure: Xeljanz will lose exclusivity next year and vaccine sales have declined, with 9M 2025 revenue down ~2% YoY to about $45 billion while EPS rose 3% to $2.56. Cost-cutting and a three-year tariff exemption may support margins, but the piece forecasts relatively weak 2026 sales absent successful approvals.

Valuation and income look attractive on headline metrics — shares at 8.7x forward earnings and a 6.6% forward dividend yield versus a healthcare P/E of 18.3 — but upside is contingent on de‑risking the mRNA flu program, PF-4404 and MET-097i; sentiment is mixed and the market impact is characterized as cautious.

Key Decisions for Investors

• Consider a measured, long-term accumulation given an 8.7x forward P/E and 6.6% yield, but size initial positions conservatively because near-term revenue headwinds and Xeljanz exclusivity loss increase downside risk
• Monitor three high-impact catalysts — regulatory progress for the mRNA influenza vaccine, periodic PF-4404 trial readouts as the company pursues ~10 indications, and a potential MET-097i Phase 3 start in 2026 — and use positive results to add exposure
• Avoid initiating large new positions ahead of 2026 clinical and regulatory milestones or use hedges to protect against adverse trial outcomes and the risk of continued weak top-line performance
• Use evidence of durable margin improvement from cost cuts and the three-year tariff exemption as a secondary confirmation before materially increasing exposure